Katrina对美国的股市的负面影响 by


问:Hurricane Katrina对美国的股市会有很大的负面影响吗?

答:先看以下的一些历史数据:Before Katrina, the most destructive hurricane in USA history was Andrew on 8/24/92. In the 6 months
following Hurricane Andrew, S&P 500 was up +8.6%. After last year's storms - 4 hurricanes (Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne) which caused $24 billion of insured losses, in the remaining 14 weeks of 2004, the total return of S&P 500 was up +9.7%. 一般来说,类似的自然灾害会刺激经济发展。但是这一次 caused disruption to
American's supply chain, particularly inputs like oil and natural gas,所以在短期内会有负面影响。幸运的是现在总体经济处于上升时期,应该能够克服短期的负面冲击。还有一点,Accoring to COV (Current Operations Value) analysis, right now only 14% of the S&P 500's value is assigned to future growth. In the past, periods with such a low allocation of future growth prospects, including February 2003 and August 2004, have signaled improtant buying opportunities in euqities.


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