掩耳盗铃活动应该告一段落了，接下来将是持久而起伏不断的 down-turn。中短期内最大的 risk 仍然是 Fed going insane.
我期待着未来几个月内，发生以下事件：
- 账面上貌似 solid 的几个 big companies report big loss and file for Chapter 11.
- Major fraud emerged in certain financial institutes.
- The above two leads a severe pull-back of major indexes.
- Un-employment rate breaks the record of the last recession.
- EU falls into deep recession, which ‘triggers’ a strong rebounce of US dollar.
And the last one depends on the mentality of Fed.
- If Big Ben goes insane, the inflation will be out of control.
but more likely,
- Big Ben remains somber, and wait for a big turmoil in other part of the world to alleviate the downward pressure of the US economy.
This is going to be a tough year. 大家自求多福吧。
