今天的经济复苏形势 10/09/2008 15:35
Even a solid report from ibm cannot lift the spirit of the market. 狂笑

The gamblers will soon be wiped out. support

Buffet once said, when everybody is scared, be greedy.


This is such a day.
you said 3% margin the other day and now it's -10% from the -3% edge you predicted.

小强同学的复苏形势很不乐观亚。

崇拜
Nike at 10/09/2008 15:55 快速引用
Nike :
you said 3% margin the other day and now it's -10% from the -3% edge you predicted.

小强同学的复苏形势很不乐观亚。

崇拜


大家已经习惯小强同学说反话了。 崇拜
blueZ at 10/09/2008 16:00 快速引用
I made a wrong call. The panic is more than I expected. But the good news is that more traders are working themselves out of their jobs. They go broken therefore the market will function a little better as each sell-off goes by.

There are some technical reasons behind today's drop as well. The short ban is lifted, and tomorrow Lehmen will start to auction its garbage. There is on-going litigation among City, Wachovia, and Wells Fargo, and most importantly, Paul has yet to come up with details of his bail-out plan. A 700 bln injection can kill any single investor if he happens to bet on the wrong side from Paul.

Simply too much man-made uncertainties.

All that said, this is a very tough time for a lot of people, esp. those who have their retirement plan managed by the "professionals".


Nike :
you said 3% margin the other day and now it's -10% from the -3% edge you predicted.

小强同学的复苏形势很不乐观亚。

崇拜
xiaoqiang at 10/09/2008 16:08 快速引用
This is the only topic that I don't 说反话.

A trend lasts more than a day and a week.

blueZ :
Nike :
you said 3% margin the other day and now it's -10% from the -3% edge you predicted.

小强同学的复苏形势很不乐观亚。

崇拜


大家已经习惯小强同学说反话了。 崇拜
xiaoqiang at 10/09/2008 16:10 快速引用
we all trust xiaoqiong. unlike us, xiaoqiang has a strong sense of big picture and like to look at things from long term prospective. even dow is down to 8500 level, it's still up from it's day one, like year of 18 something?

xiaoqiang :
This is the only topic that I don't 说反话.

A trend lasts more than a day and a week.

blueZ :
Nike :
you said 3% margin the other day and now it's -10% from the -3% edge you predicted.

小强同学的复苏形势很不乐观亚。

崇拜


大家已经习惯小强同学说反话了。 崇拜
genie at 10/09/2008 16:15 快速引用
The problems in this market right now are mostly problems on paper. "The rest of the economy" is doing just fine.

Just like most "experts" were predicting that there will just be a "slow-down of the economy" earlier this year, now the same bunch of worthless folks are foretelling that "the recession goes deeper." They should all work in Las Vegas or Comedy Central.


genie :
we all trust xiaoqiong. unlike us, xiaoqiang has a strong sense of big picture and like to look at things from long term prospective. even dow is down to 8500 level, it's still up from it's day one, like year of 18 something?

xiaoqiang :
This is the only topic that I don't 说反话.

A trend lasts more than a day and a week.

blueZ :
Nike :
you said 3% margin the other day and now it's -10% from the -3% edge you predicted.

小强同学的复苏形势很不乐观亚。

崇拜


大家已经习惯小强同学说反话了。 崇拜
xiaoqiang at 10/09/2008 16:21 快速引用
today is the first day where day traders are allowed to short stock. I'm thinking of borrowing money to buy shares, everything will be 2 - 3 bucks soon
豆豆 at 10/09/2008 16:24 快速引用
豆豆 :
today is the first day where day traders are allowed to short stock. I'm thinking of borrowing money to buy shares, everything will be 2 - 3 bucks soon

it's safer to short these days...
genie at 10/09/2008 16:26 快速引用
The 700 bln is like a heavy cloud over investors' head right now. Nobody dares to place the bet. This is what you get when you allow 一小撮人掌控社会主义金融体系。


豆豆 :
today is the first day where day traders are allowed to short stock. I'm thinking of borrowing money to buy shares, everything will be 2 - 3 bucks soon
xiaoqiang at 10/09/2008 16:29 快速引用
Not any more.

genie :
豆豆 :
today is the first day where day traders are allowed to short stock. I'm thinking of borrowing money to buy shares, everything will be 2 - 3 bucks soon

it's safer to short these days...
xiaoqiang at 10/09/2008 16:30 快速引用
mark my word, you will see. there is still room downward.
xiaoqiang :
Not any more.

genie :
豆豆 :
today is the first day where day traders are allowed to short stock. I'm thinking of borrowing money to buy shares, everything will be 2 - 3 bucks soon

it's safer to short these days...
genie at 10/09/2008 16:50 快速引用
Short the market right now is like gambling.

genie :
mark my word, you will see. there is still room downward.
xiaoqiang :
Not any more.

genie :
豆豆 :
today is the first day where day traders are allowed to short stock. I'm thinking of borrowing money to buy shares, everything will be 2 - 3 bucks soon

it's safer to short these days...
xiaoqiang at 10/09/2008 16:52 快速引用
no it is not. the market is not going to bounce, so shorting is safe simply because the worst case is that you don't gain much, but when it's down, you earn soemthing.
xiaoqiang :
Short the market right now is like gambling.

genie :
mark my word, you will see. there is still room downward.
xiaoqiang :
Not any more.

genie :
豆豆 :
today is the first day where day traders are allowed to short stock. I'm thinking of borrowing money to buy shares, everything will be 2 - 3 bucks soon

it's safer to short these days...
genie at 10/09/2008 17:02 快速引用
Ok go ahead then.

I won't do it though. Too risky.


genie :
no it is not. the market is not going to bounce, so shorting is safe simply because the worst case is that you don't gain much, but when it's down, you earn soemthing.
xiaoqiang :
Short the market right now is like gambling.

genie :
mark my word, you will see. there is still room downward.
xiaoqiang :
Not any more.

genie :
豆豆 :
today is the first day where day traders are allowed to short stock. I'm thinking of borrowing money to buy shares, everything will be 2 - 3 bucks soon

it's safer to short these days...
xiaoqiang at 10/09/2008 17:05 快速引用
If I see more blood on the street tomorrow I'll try to buy more financials tongue tongue
genie :
mark my word, you will see. there is still room downward.
xiaoqiang :
Not any more.

genie :
豆豆 :
today is the first day where day traders are allowed to short stock. I'm thinking of borrowing money to buy shares, everything will be 2 - 3 bucks soon

it's safer to short these days...
豆豆 at 10/10/2008 01:59 快速引用
What do you think?

开会 at 10/10/2008 08:35 快速引用
This chart is not inflation adjusted.

开会 :
What do you think?

xiaoqiang at 10/10/2008 08:42 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
This chart is not inflation adjusted.

随便你怎么adjust,你能把那三个bubble adjust掉我就服了U Laughing
开会 at 10/10/2008 08:55 快速引用
Inflation adjusted chart (the yellow line). Keep in mind since 1980's, housing price is excluded from CPI, therefore the real inflation adjusted Dow Jones will be even flatter for the most recent decade.



开会 :
xiaoqiang :
This chart is not inflation adjusted.

随便你怎么adjust,你能把那三个bubble adjust掉我就服了U Laughing
xiaoqiang at 10/10/2008 09:02 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
Inflation adjusted chart (the yellow line). Keep in mind since 1980's, housing price is excluded from CPI, therefore the real inflation adjusted Dow Jones will be even flatter for the most recent decade.



你这个chart的y坐标是exponential的,成百上千倍地缩小了现在的问题

you forgot the inflated housing price gave people false confidence to spend, which drove GDP and stock market in turn.

this is how I see the chart for the recent bubbles
开会 at 10/10/2008 09:10 快速引用
开会 at 10/10/2008 09:13 快速引用
We will see how severe the CDS problem is today through Lehman's aution. It might turn out to be not a big deal.
xiaoqiang at 10/10/2008 09:26 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
We will see how severe the CDS problem is today through Lehman's aution. It might turn out to be not a big deal.


dream on...

paulson is going to ask for more money
开会 at 10/10/2008 09:27 快速引用
No. He is working on the reverse auction. Today's sale of Lehman may give him some guidance about the price.

开会 :
xiaoqiang :
We will see how severe the CDS problem is today through Lehman's aution. It might turn out to be not a big deal.


dream on...

paulson is going to ask for more money
xiaoqiang at 10/10/2008 09:30 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
No. He is working on the reverse auction. Today's sale of Lehman may give him some guidance about the price.


we'll see wink
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=anUDEEEP1_M0&refer=home


(Now I kinda feel bad that I sort of have been waking folks up from recovery dreams... It might be better for mental health that folks still have optimism rather than not. I'll just shut up... smile )
开会 at 10/10/2008 09:35 快速引用
不管小强说得是正话还是反话, 我都一律当反话看了 Laughing
还是把我的钱袋看好点实在 happy
fresh_orange at 10/10/2008 09:50 快速引用
I am probably day dreaming. I cannot understand why I am so optimistic now. confused 我晕

We will see...

开会 :
xiaoqiang :
No. He is working on the reverse auction. Today's sale of Lehman may give him some guidance about the price.


we'll see wink
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=anUDEEEP1_M0&refer=home


(Now I kinda feel bad that I sort of have been waking folks up from recovery dreams... It might be better for mental health that folks still have optimism rather than not. I'll just shut up... smile )
xiaoqiang at 10/10/2008 09:56 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
I am probably day dreaming. I cannot understand why I am so optimistic now. confused 我晕

We will see...

开会 :
xiaoqiang :
No. He is working on the reverse auction. Today's sale of Lehman may give him some guidance about the price.


we'll see wink
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=anUDEEEP1_M0&refer=home


(Now I kinda feel bad that I sort of have been waking folks up from recovery dreams... It might be better for mental health that folks still have optimism rather than not. I'll just shut up... smile )


日本的经验教训是避免wishful thinking.

人们的素质没有你想的那么好!

好素质的人里面没多少钱,所以相对丢得少 (因此相对还变富裕了),才显得冷静。
wildcrane at 10/10/2008 10:09 快速引用
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