今天的经济复苏形势 10/24/2008 10:25
Or is there a 复苏?

From IBM to Intel to Microsoft to Apple to ... All of the solid companies are doing great. Banks' business are taken over by the Fed and before long lots of them will be irrelevant to the economy. The money market is easing, oil is dropping and USD is strengthening, existing home sale is picking up.... The business is doing ok except for those over-leveraged gamblers.

Yet people are blind.


But the trick is, people can remain blind for a very long time. And when people cannot see, they become panic. And panic people can do scary things.

This is a very scary market. Mathematics is over-taken by the psychology. Innocent people are black-mailed by the reckless losers, and it takes time for them to realize how irrelevant those losers really are.


May this once in a decade large scale psychological experiment unfolds well.





祝你好运
hiking instead...
simple at 10/24/2008 10:30 快速引用
I am actually hoping the market get depressed even further. Then there will be much more low hanging fruits to pick.

Wiping out the gamblers will only benefit the economy, in the long run.


simple :
hiking instead...
xiaoqiang at 10/24/2008 10:43 快速引用
this week, already 3 friends called me saying their company claim a layoff is coming either next week or in the near future, one of the companies already gave out the number of people that will be layoffed, three of them are in different industries. Two of them asked me helping submit their resumes to my company.

some friend changed his msn nick name to 'cashflow is the king'.

luckily I passed my panic three days in the early of this week, otherwise I can't image how I would feel when they were calling.
emory at 10/24/2008 10:44 快速引用
just heard the radio said that "stock markets world wide fall off cliff."
genie at 10/24/2008 10:49 快速引用
我们公司 freeze 了。A step in the right direction.

It is a blessing thing that the market tanks before obm gets elected and his psuedo economic advisers start to implement their 'rescue' plan.

Obm's 'plan' means inflation. There is no other way around because the money cannot move at the speed of light, and his number just does not add up. I support obm, but I cannot support what he has in mind because inflation means real disaster to me.

The market is protecting itself from obm.


emory :
this week, already 3 friends called me saying their company claim a layoff is coming either next week or in the near future, one of the companies already gave out the number of people that will be layoffed, three of them are in different industries. Two of them asked me helping submit their resumes to my company.

some friend changed his msn nick name to 'cashflow is the king'.

luckily I passed my panic three days in the early of this week, otherwise I can't image how I would feel when they were calling.
xiaoqiang at 10/24/2008 10:55 快速引用
It is soft landing because the sea is not far below the cliff and there is a sandy beach very close by.

I am optimistic now more than at any other time so far this year.


genie :
just heard the radio said that "stock markets world wide fall off cliff."
xiaoqiang at 10/24/2008 10:59 快速引用
i haven't heard anything. only resign news from my workmates. yesterday another project assigned to me. 打你
don't understand what's going on. now I don't care what will be added to exp.
emory :
this week, already 3 friends called me saying their company claim a layoff is coming either next week or in the near future, one of the companies already gave out the number of people that will be layoffed, three of them are in different industries. Two of them asked me helping submit their resumes to my company.

some friend changed his msn nick name to 'cashflow is the king'.

luckily I passed my panic three days in the early of this week, otherwise I can't image how I would feel when they were calling.
simple at 10/24/2008 11:00 快速引用
Let's just think it this way: If 元宝's company is so upset about losing an in-experienced new-hire, the economy cannot be that bad.

The economy is in real trouble when people are laid off according to accounting calculations. I don't think we are getting there, instead I think we start to move away from it, because the "experts" in accounting are losing their own jobs. If there are no accountants around, there is no lay off.
xiaoqiang at 10/24/2008 11:05 快速引用
Our company hold a town hall meeting this week, CEO address current market crisis and possibility future layoff. (we have hire freeze early this year)
xqh05 at 10/24/2008 11:09 快速引用
Massive layoffs always occur AFTER the market hits the bottom, because 决定裁员的人 are retarded.

xqh05 :
Our company hold a town hall meeting this week, CEO address current market crisis and possibility future layoff. (we have hire freeze early this year)
xiaoqiang at 10/24/2008 11:15 快速引用
"No complain. You might have to feel blessed when you need to work overtime, 'cause you still have a job, at least. " quote from a friend of mine.

simple :
i haven't heard anything. only resign news from my workmates. yesterday another project assigned to me. 打你
don't understand what's going on. now I don't care what will be added to exp.
emory :
this week, already 3 friends called me saying their company claim a layoff is coming either next week or in the near future, one of the companies already gave out the number of people that will be layoffed, three of them are in different industries. Two of them asked me helping submit their resumes to my company.

some friend changed his msn nick name to 'cashflow is the king'.

luckily I passed my panic three days in the early of this week, otherwise I can't image how I would feel when they were calling.
emory at 10/24/2008 11:52 快速引用
这个我理解,可我就是高兴不起来。有些浮躁。以前不急的事情现在觉得很急,就想去push。 oops
周末爬山吗?
(电话还没打呢,下午的 oops
emory :
"No complain. You might have to feel blessed when you need to work overtime, 'cause you still have a job, at least. " quote from a friend of mine.

:
simple at 10/24/2008 12:03 快速引用
simple :
周末爬山吗?


周六有事走不开,周日可以考虑。不过最近好象很累,回来已经两星期了一直说要去gym可是一直都没去,对不起我交的membership fee, 也许周末该休息一下,我也不知道。
emory at 10/24/2008 12:44 快速引用
这个是老中 friend 说的吧?

emory :
"No complain. You might have to feel blessed when you need to work overtime, 'cause you still have a job, at least. " quote from a friend of mine.

simple :
i haven't heard anything. only resign news from my workmates. yesterday another project assigned to me. 打你
don't understand what's going on. now I don't care what will be added to exp.
emory :
this week, already 3 friends called me saying their company claim a layoff is coming either next week or in the near future, one of the companies already gave out the number of people that will be layoffed, three of them are in different industries. Two of them asked me helping submit their resumes to my company.

some friend changed his msn nick name to 'cashflow is the king'.

luckily I passed my panic three days in the early of this week, otherwise I can't image how I would feel when they were calling.
xiaoqiang at 10/24/2008 13:41 快速引用
恩,等搞定卡卡之后估计就是另一个心态了, 现在只能很中央台的希望'稳定压倒一切' Laughing

xiaoqiang :
这个是老中 friend 说的吧?

emory :
"No complain. You might have to feel blessed when you need to work overtime, 'cause you still have a job, at least. " quote from a friend of mine.

simple :
i haven't heard anything. only resign news from my workmates. yesterday another project assigned to me. 打你
don't understand what's going on. now I don't care what will be added to exp.
emory :
this week, already 3 friends called me saying their company claim a layoff is coming either next week or in the near future, one of the companies already gave out the number of people that will be layoffed, three of them are in different industries. Two of them asked me helping submit their resumes to my company.

some friend changed his msn nick name to 'cashflow is the king'.

luckily I passed my panic three days in the early of this week, otherwise I can't image how I would feel when they were calling.
emory at 10/24/2008 13:50 快速引用
咱就不能彪捍一点,对公司来个趁火打劫落井下石啥 confused
fresh_orange at 10/24/2008 14:05 快速引用
太难读了
全是英文
开会 at 10/24/2008 14:46 快速引用
开会 :
太难读了
全是英文


对xiaoqiang评价要客观的,还是有两个中文字的:复苏。
rogerlee at 10/24/2008 15:12 快速引用
狂笑 这样好像不叫彪悍。一不professional, 二地球少了谁都照样转, 三谁都不是傻子,老板更不是,让人瞧不起就不好了
fresh_orange :
咱就不能彪捍一点,对公司来个趁火打劫落井下石啥 confused
simple at 10/24/2008 15:15 快速引用
谁爱瞧谁瞧去,这年头金融土匪最横,老板见了他们都爱护有加 牛

simple :
狂笑 这样好像不叫彪悍。一不professional, 二地球少了谁都照样转, 三谁都不是傻子,老板更不是,让人瞧不起就不好了
fresh_orange :
咱就不能彪捍一点,对公司来个趁火打劫落井下石啥 confused
fresh_orange at 10/24/2008 15:49 快速引用
同意 这年头职位越高,(on average) 越不知羞耻。

fresh_orange :
谁爱瞧谁瞧去,这年头金融土匪最横,老板见了他们都爱护有加 牛

simple :
狂笑 这样好像不叫彪悍。一不professional, 二地球少了谁都照样转, 三谁都不是傻子,老板更不是,让人瞧不起就不好了
fresh_orange :
咱就不能彪捍一点,对公司来个趁火打劫落井下石啥 confused
xiaoqiang at 10/24/2008 15:51 快速引用
敢情咱们说的不是一码事啊。。。你说的是
金融土匪, 我说的是普通打工的。。。

fresh_orange :
谁爱瞧谁瞧去,这年头金融土匪最横,老板见了他们都爱护有加 牛

simple :
狂笑 这样好像不叫彪悍。一不professional, 二地球少了谁都照样转, 三谁都不是傻子,老板更不是,让人瞧不起就不好了
fresh_orange :
咱就不能彪捍一点,对公司来个趁火打劫落井下石啥 confused
simple at 10/24/2008 17:54 快速引用
fresh_orange :
咱就不能彪捍一点,对公司来个趁火打劫落井下石啥 confused


good idea support Laughing Laughing
wildcrane at 10/24/2008 19:05 快速引用
confused
fresh_orange :
咱就不能彪捍一点,对公司来个趁火打劫落井下石啥 confused
xqh05 at 10/24/2008 23:03 快速引用
会有这么快,这么容易就复苏吗?我认为壁橱里应该还有骨架子,只是我们老百姓不知道而已。联邦对银行注资,那些老家伙们这么爽快就签字了,如果光是那点问题,他们估计该讨价还价的。公司运行的模式都依赖现金流,经济总规模这么大,银行却要信用紧缩。实业经济,就业,消费,房产,这些相互都有放大反馈效应。如果安然度过难关,我会说那是走钢丝成功了。

我以前就说过的,美国还有些势的,就是路走窄了。

在讨论的亚洲储备金,会以什么货币结算呀?
WoJian at 10/25/2008 22:17 快速引用
美元。

WoJian :

在讨论的亚洲储备金,会以什么货币结算呀?
xiaoqiang at 10/25/2008 23:20 快速引用
看了这文章,差点以为经济在复苏。但是这么大的烂摊子,因该还有俩三年才能搞定吧。Poll: 50% of the Americans worry about loosing their jobs
豆豆 at 10/26/2008 00:00 快速引用
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