今天的经济形势 10/29/2008 14:26
祝你好运
Why Dow goes down when the Fed Fund rate is lower?
wildcrane at 10/29/2008 14:53 快速引用
Why will obm win?

wildcrane :
Why Dow goes down when the Fed Fund rate is lower?
xiaoqiang at 10/29/2008 16:01 快速引用
I have become opportunistic recently, switching between bull and bear several times.


Time to go back to the fundamentals. Inflation is coming, or tax increase is coming, or both.

If obm is determined to re-distribute wealth, he will prevail one way or the other. Getting everybody equally poor is not difficult.

祝你好运
xiaoqiang at 10/29/2008 16:56 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
I have become opportunistic recently, switching between bull and bear several times.


Time to go back to the fundamentals. Inflation is coming, or tax increase is coming, or both.

If obm is determined to re-distribute wealth, he will prevail one way or the other. Getting everybody equally poor is not difficult.

祝你好运


i am not concerned with redistribution. how much it can be redistributed in a year comparing to the stock loss due to those 'rich' and 'hard working' and 'greedy' excutives 玩儿空手道把我们搞到这个地步?
wildcrane at 10/29/2008 17:24 快速引用
When people lose money, they tend to under-estimate the potential risk of losing even more. smile

wildcrane :


how much it can be redistributed in a year comparing to the stock loss due to those 'rich' and 'hard working' and 'greedy' excutives 玩儿空手道把我们搞到这个地步?
xiaoqiang at 10/29/2008 17:31 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
When people lose money, they tend to under-estimate the potential risk of losing even more. smile

wildcrane :


how much it can be redistributed in a year comparing to the stock loss due to those 'rich' and 'hard working' and 'greedy' excutives 玩儿空手道把我们搞到这个地步?


I already mentioned my fundamentals - I have never had problem in giving some by each one so that people in dire need could have achieve basic need (such as food and health care or for environment). I have no problem of giving.

But I don't like to lose because of the so called 'hard-working', 'rich' and greedy people screed us while their pockets are full except they could buy another luxury house in an exotic island.
wildcrane at 10/29/2008 17:44 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
I have become opportunistic recently, switching between bull and bear several times.

Time to go back to the fundamentals. Inflation is coming, or tax increase is coming, or both.

If obm is determined to re-distribute wealth, he will prevail one way or the other. Getting everybody equally poor is not difficult.

祝你好运


经典的金融危机,应该是通货紧缩,有东西人家手里没钱买呀。:)

当然了,笨男科的理论就是在这种时候印钱。听起来是不错的,紧缩的时候印钱,现代金融的理论,不就是只要有需要,就能变钱出来嘛。我还没弄清这样做的坏处在哪里。
WoJian at 10/29/2008 21:25 快速引用
其实没什么坏处,as long as 有中国这样的国家为美国把多印出来的钱埋起来。钱从 Big Ben 那里到中国走一圈,振兴了美国经济,达到了钱应该起到的作用。

中国内部循环钱的渠道太不通畅了。

WoJian :
xiaoqiang :
I have become opportunistic recently, switching between bull and bear several times.

Time to go back to the fundamentals. Inflation is coming, or tax increase is coming, or both.

If obm is determined to re-distribute wealth, he will prevail one way or the other. Getting everybody equally poor is not difficult.

祝你好运


经典的金融危机,应该是通货紧缩,有东西人家手里没钱买呀。:)

当然了,笨男科的理论就是在这种时候印钱。听起来是不错的,紧缩的时候印钱,现代金融的理论,不就是只要有需要,就能变钱出来嘛。我还没弄清这样做的坏处在哪里。
xiaoqiang at 10/29/2008 22:50 快速引用
坏处可能就是变钱的收利息,造成了系统对金融的偏向,长期的滚利效应,让金融比例越占越大,形成金融寡头势力和集团,对国家造成政策倾斜,引起金融腐败。

如果这个变钱体系是国家的,那么本来国家就是花钱单位,赚到的利息当年花掉,这种利息就没有滚利积累,就没有这个金融寡头的问题。这样国家一体化的另一个效果,就是可以减轻税收负担。

金融寡头,只贪心钱变钱,也是流通不畅。所以共和党的给富人发钱,希望那钱能创造就业,流到穷人口袋的政策,才成了实现不了的梦想。

xiaoqiang :
其实没什么坏处,as long as 有中国这样的国家为美国把多印出来的钱埋起来。钱从 Big Ben 那里到中国走一圈,振兴了美国经济,达到了钱应该起到的作用。

中国内部循环钱的渠道太不通畅了。

WoJian :
xiaoqiang :
I have become opportunistic recently, switching between bull and bear several times.

Time to go back to the fundamentals. Inflation is coming, or tax increase is coming, or both.

If obm is determined to re-distribute wealth, he will prevail one way or the other. Getting everybody equally poor is not difficult.

祝你好运


经典的金融危机,应该是通货紧缩,有东西人家手里没钱买呀。:)

当然了,笨男科的理论就是在这种时候印钱。听起来是不错的,紧缩的时候印钱,现代金融的理论,不就是只要有需要,就能变钱出来嘛。我还没弄清这样做的坏处在哪里。
WoJian at 10/30/2008 07:42 快速引用
同意

我隐隐约约的感觉这种讨论有点儿宗教问题的趋势了。

钱到底起了个什么作用,从钱本身肯定找不到答案。联合国的那个 happy 指数算是个稍微有点儿实际意义的标尺。


现在回想起小学中学的历史课本,讲英国是如何通过鸦片和其他贸易骗取中国的白银的,太 misleading 了。不知道现在的课本是不是还在这样骗祖国的花朵。


WoJian :


金融寡头,只贪心钱变钱,也是流通不畅。
xiaoqiang at 10/30/2008 10:21 快速引用
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