今天的经济形式 11/04/2008 10:14
As I said last week, time to get out.

The party will be over soon.


祝你好运
xiaoqiang :
As I said last week, time to get out.

The party will be over soon.


祝你好运


you mean time to sell?
persoone at 11/04/2008 11:13 快速引用
I did.

persoone :
xiaoqiang :
As I said last week, time to get out.

The party will be over soon.


祝你好运


you mean time to sell?
xiaoqiang at 11/04/2008 11:16 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
I did.

persoone :
xiaoqiang :
As I said last week, time to get out.

The party will be over soon.


祝你好运


you mean time to sell?


I am hesitating...it is still going up...
persoone at 11/04/2008 11:28 快速引用
It may go up another 300 points, if people really get tuned up. But the big money managers are not fools. One man's words cannot turn around the disaster.

persoone :
xiaoqiang :
I did.

persoone :
xiaoqiang :
As I said last week, time to get out.

The party will be over soon.


祝你好运


you mean time to sell?


I am hesitating...it is still going up...
xiaoqiang at 11/04/2008 11:51 快速引用
Mine is out too:)

xiaoqiang :
It may go up another 300 points, if people really get tuned up. But the big money managers are not fools. One man's words cannot turn around the disaster.

persoone :
xiaoqiang :
I did.

persoone :
xiaoqiang :
As I said last week, time to get out.

The party will be over soon.


祝你好运


you mean time to sell?


I am hesitating...it is still going up...
persoone at 11/04/2008 16:03 快速引用
Don't regret if the market goes to the roof in the following days...

persoone :
Mine is out too:)

xiaoqiang :
It may go up another 300 points, if people really get tuned up. But the big money managers are not fools. One man's words cannot turn around the disaster.

persoone :
xiaoqiang :
I did.

persoone :
xiaoqiang :
As I said last week, time to get out.

The party will be over soon.


祝你好运


you mean time to sell?


I am hesitating...it is still going up...
xiaoqiang at 11/04/2008 16:20 快速引用
The market can go either way at this point. There are conflicting indicators.
xiaoqiang at 11/04/2008 16:25 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
Don't regret if the market goes to the roof in the following days...



If so, it is the chance to play/speculate in the bigger wave wink
persoone at 11/04/2008 16:25 快速引用
My sense is, the market will recover on paper but deteriorate in real term. Big Ben has done his job.

Will a recovery on paper leads to the real recovery? I doubt it because 2008 is different from other years. A president equipped only with manipulative consultants but no real vision or will is very scary.


persoone :
xiaoqiang :
Don't regret if the market goes to the roof in the following days...



If so, it is the chance to play/speculate in the bigger wave wink
xiaoqiang at 11/04/2008 16:30 快速引用
Heihei, I am a shortterm trader...

xiaoqiang :
My sense is, the market will recover on paper but deteriorate in real term. Big Ben has done his job.

Will a recovery on paper leads to the real recovery? I doubt it because 2008 is different from other years. A president equipped only with manipulative consultants but no real vision or will is very scary.


persoone :
xiaoqiang :
Don't regret if the market goes to the roof in the following days...



If so, it is the chance to play/speculate in the bigger wave wink
persoone at 11/04/2008 16:35 快速引用
U.S. Stocks Drop on Economic Concern; Nucor, Transocean Retreat
By Elizabeth Stanton

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks dropped after a report showing 157,000 job losses and falling production at the world's largest steelmaker spurred concern the economy will worsen even as President-elect Barack Obama takes steps to stimulate growth.

Nucor Corp., the largest U.S.-based steel producer, fell 4.6 percent after ArcelorMittal doubled production cuts amid slowing demand. Transocean Inc., the world's largest offshore oil driller, slid 4 percent on profit that fell short of the average analyst estimate. The market's declines came a day after the biggest presidential Election Day gain in 24 years.

``The rally has already taken place as polls made it clear who would be elected,'' said Gilles Fleckenstein, chief executive officer of BNP Paribas Asset Management in Paris, which oversees $419 billion in assets. ``Now, people will wait to see what happens. We're in the heart of the recession now.''

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped 17.65 points, or 1.8 percent, to 988.1 at 9:33 a.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 136.04, or 1.4 percent, to 9,489.24 and the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased 26.96, or 1.5 percent to 1,753.16.

The retreat halted an 18 percent rebound from the S&P 500's five-year low on Oct. 27. The benchmark for U.S. equities has lost 32 percent this year, the steepest annual retreat since 1937, and Obama will have to contend with an economy pummeled by the fastest contraction in manufacturing in 26 years and the lowest consumer confidence.

The report by ADP Employer Services showed more job cuts than economists had projected and precedes the Labor Department's Nov. 11 release of employment data for October, expected to show U.S. payrolls shrank for a 10th straight month.

To contact the reporters on this story: To contact the reporter on this story: Elizabeth Stanton in New York at estanton@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 5, 2008 09:40 EST
开会 at 11/05/2008 09:49 快速引用
It was a right decision smile
persoone at 11/05/2008 10:12 快速引用
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)
WoJian at 11/07/2008 08:43 快速引用
WoJian :
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)


昨天出来是不是晚了一点。。。小强是11/4出来的。。。
开会 at 11/07/2008 11:21 快速引用
You can bet on the other direction.

开会 :
WoJian :
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)


昨天出来是不是晚了一点。。。小强是11/4出来的。。。
xiaoqiang at 11/07/2008 11:29 快速引用
I was brave and got in Casino again the next day...

xiaoqiang :
You can bet on the other direction.

开会 :
WoJian :
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)


昨天出来是不是晚了一点。。。小强是11/4出来的。。。
persoone at 11/07/2008 12:08 快速引用
sorry to hear that...

persoone :
I was brave and got in Casino again the next day...

xiaoqiang :
You can bet on the other direction.

开会 :
WoJian :
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)


昨天出来是不是晚了一点。。。小强是11/4出来的。。。
开会 at 11/07/2008 12:10 快速引用
同意

开会 :
sorry to hear that...

persoone :
I was brave and got in Casino again the next day...

xiaoqiang :
You can bet on the other direction.

开会 :
WoJian :
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)


昨天出来是不是晚了一点。。。小强是11/4出来的。。。
xiaoqiang at 11/07/2008 12:41 快速引用
[quote="xiaoqiang"]同意

开会 :
sorry to hear that...

persoone :
I was brave and got in Casino again the next day...



Thanks both rose
A bit too soon but not that bad:)
persoone at 11/07/2008 14:03 快速引用
persoone :
xiaoqiang :
同意

开会 :
sorry to hear that...

persoone :
I was brave and got in Casino again the next day...



Thanks both rose
A bit too soon but not that bad:)


你也不错了,算是玩了把一天的short。如果量大的话,收获很好的呢。
WoJian at 11/07/2008 15:40 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
You can bet on the other direction.

开会 :
WoJian :
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)


昨天出来是不是晚了一点。。。小强是11/4出来的。。。


是啊,她厉害着呢,两倍反指股,四号最低进,六号最高出。
WoJian at 11/07/2008 15:45 快速引用
WoJian :
xiaoqiang :
You can bet on the other direction.

开会 :
WoJian :
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)


昨天出来是不是晚了一点。。。小强是11/4出来的。。。


是啊,她厉害着呢,两倍反指股,四号最低进,六号最高出。


牛 牛 崇拜 崇拜
开会 at 11/07/2008 15:50 快速引用
That's a gamble indeed.

WoJian :
xiaoqiang :
You can bet on the other direction.

开会 :
WoJian :
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)


昨天出来是不是晚了一点。。。小强是11/4出来的。。。


是啊,她厉害着呢,两倍反指股,四号最低进,六号最高出。
xiaoqiang at 11/07/2008 16:10 快速引用
趁年轻, 多赌几次. 老了就没那么勇敢了.
breezy at 11/07/2008 16:16 快速引用
WoJian :
persoone :
xiaoqiang :
同意

开会 :
sorry to hear that...

persoone :
I was brave and got in Casino again the next day...



Thanks both rose
A bit too soon but not that bad:)


你也不错了,算是玩了把一天的short。如果量大的话,收获很好的呢。


呵呵,玩啦一把心跳,满意:)!
persoone at 11/07/2008 16:21 快速引用
开会 :
WoJian :
xiaoqiang :
You can bet on the other direction.

开会 :
WoJian :
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)


昨天出来是不是晚了一点。。。小强是11/4出来的。。。


是啊,她厉害着呢,两倍反指股,四号最低进,六号最高出。


牛 牛 崇拜 崇拜


co- 牛 崇拜
persoone at 11/07/2008 16:21 快速引用
从方向上我是支持她的,我也是中短期都看跌。短期来说,我是觉得托市的政治力量要撤出了,没有人大力托,短期就要有自由落体现象。而且不管经济危机困难程度事实如何,反正已经达到了大家减少消费的心理攻势效果,很多消费销售指标都会有延期惯性。中期来说,民主党也不会期望现在股市马上回升的,而是期望等它上台以后。即便救市丢下去的那点钱真的取得效果,借钱信用放松,也有一个延期效应。人的心理恢复,也有延迟效应。

不过,你说得对,不应该鼓励timing the market。

我太太主意很强的。虽然四号进的时候我也是同样的主意,昨天出完全是她一个人的主意。

如果她没出,我也就不会出来说什么的了,免得她说我乌鸦嘴。:)

虽然总统一个人不一定能做很大改变,但至少制药业是比较恐慌的。

xiaoqiang :
That's a gamble indeed.

WoJian :
xiaoqiang :
You can bet on the other direction.

开会 :
WoJian :
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)


昨天出来是不是晚了一点。。。小强是11/4出来的。。。


是啊,她厉害着呢,两倍反指股,四号最低进,六号最高出。
WoJian at 11/07/2008 18:18 快速引用
我现在看不太清方向,所以短期内不敢玩了,最多是 day trade 几次。

我感觉这次危机比大多数人现在想象的要严重。obm 如果和 bs 一样 predicable,那还有一线生机。但这个人和他的幕僚都是 manipulative 耍小聪明的一类。

obm 和罗斯福里根不同,虽然都接手了一个 mess,但 obm 政治根基不稳,自己能力又差,又没有一个大多数人支持的明确的 ideal,所以扭转乾坤的希望很渺茫。


WoJian :
从方向上我是支持她的,我也是中短期都看跌。短期来说,我是觉得托市的政治力量要撤出了,没有人大力托,短期就要有自由落体现象。而且不管经济危机困难程度事实如何,反正已经达到了大家减少消费的心理攻势效果,很多消费销售指标都会有延期惯性。中期来说,民主党也不会期望现在股市马上回升的,而是期望等它上台以后。即便救市丢下去的那点钱真的取得效果,借钱信用放松,也有一个延期效应。人的心理恢复,也有延迟效应。

不过,你说得对,不应该鼓励timing the market。

我太太主意很强的。虽然四号进的时候我也是同样的主意,昨天出完全是她一个人的主意。

如果她没出,我也就不会出来说什么的了,免得她说我乌鸦嘴。:)

虽然总统一个人不一定能做很大改变,但至少制药业是比较恐慌的。

xiaoqiang :
That's a gamble indeed.

WoJian :
xiaoqiang :
You can bet on the other direction.

开会 :
WoJian :
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)


昨天出来是不是晚了一点。。。小强是11/4出来的。。。


是啊,她厉害着呢,两倍反指股,四号最低进,六号最高出。
xiaoqiang at 11/07/2008 18:30 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
我现在看不太清方向,所以短期内不敢玩了,最多是 day trade 几次。

我感觉这次危机比大多数人现在想象的要严重。obm 如果和 bs 一样 predicable,那还有一线生机。但这个人和他的幕僚都是 manipulative 耍小聪明的一类。

obm 和罗斯福里根不同,虽然都接手了一个 mess,但 obm 政治根基不稳,自己能力又差,又没有一个大多数人支持的明确的 ideal,所以扭转乾坤的希望很渺茫。

WoJian :
从方向上我是支持她的,我也是中短期都看跌。短期来说,我是觉得托市的政治力量要撤出了,没有人大力托,短期就要有自由落体现象。而且不管经济危机困难程度事实如何,反正已经达到了大家减少消费的心理攻势效果,很多消费销售指标都会有延期惯性。中期来说,民主党也不会期望现在股市马上回升的,而是期望等它上台以后。即便救市丢下去的那点钱真的取得效果,借钱信用放松,也有一个延期效应。人的心理恢复,也有延迟效应。

不过,你说得对,不应该鼓励timing the market。

我太太主意很强的。虽然四号进的时候我也是同样的主意,昨天出完全是她一个人的主意。

如果她没出,我也就不会出来说什么的了,免得她说我乌鸦嘴。:)

虽然总统一个人不一定能做很大改变,但至少制药业是比较恐慌的。

xiaoqiang :
That's a gamble indeed.

WoJian :
xiaoqiang :
You can bet on the other direction.

开会 :
WoJian :
persoone :
It was a right decision smile


是啊,小强很准确。我太太更牛,赌了一把,昨天抽出,把她给得意得。:)


昨天出来是不是晚了一点。。。小强是11/4出来的。。。


是啊,她厉害着呢,两倍反指股,四号最低进,六号最高出。


obs有没有能力我认为是难说的。我没有研究过美国运动带动政治的历史,不知道煽动民众能不能带动得起议员的从众心理。加上obm是个想讨很多人喜欢的性格,他是否能做成事,首先是看占了多数席位的民主党是否能支持他了。加上美国经济结构,总有underdog在下面盯着frontdog,所以一是有力可依,稍微多加点力度,是有可能改变力量平衡来做成改革的;而且不是掀了领头狼,整个体制就垮台了,而是二狼当头。所以可以在这种变革过程中,加入聪明的条款,调整规则,奖勤罚懒。而且他能否做成事,还要看他的顾问是否真正有能力。美国主要的问题还是上层的勤奋问题,避免投机风险转嫁给公众问题,现在危机的风声是有利于鼓励勤奋的,就看他如何带动了。国际上期待美国从布什的政策中变化,也是一个可利用的形势。

我所担心的,第一大就是他过于求全,造成inconsistency,引起人家一波波地背叛他。第二大是担心他依赖的顾问计划过于理想化,理论化。第三大担心的是他依赖的顾问比现在在前台的还要贪婪。

他有没有能力,上台后不久就应该能够看得出来了。
WoJian at 11/07/2008 20:08 快速引用
我见不要担心了,反正他是上台了,就逆来顺受吧 Laughing
开会 at 11/07/2008 20:18 快速引用
谁上台都是一帮犹太人在边上赚。 牛
xiaoqiang at 11/07/2008 20:55 快速引用
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