今天的经济形势 11/20/2008 16:42
Amazing.

A holidy rally will start soon and extend to Jan, when our omnipotent president elect obm takes office and fix everything.

obm bless america. 祝你好运
xiaoqiang :
Amazing.

A holidy rally will start soon and extend to Jan, when our omnipotent president elect obm takes office and fix everything.

obm bless america. 祝你好运


没出乎我的意料吧。 Laughing

credit紧缩,不仅影响了个人消费,也影响了企业消费。企业都在那里攒现金。美元的流通倍数,已经从9降到6。印钱的时候到了。

麻烦的是,以后美元流通倍数从6升回9的时候,那些多印的货币如何回笼,拿什么实物去回笼。回笼不了,就是大幅通货膨胀。
WoJian at 11/20/2008 18:31 快速引用
该见底了吗?

xiaoqiang :
Amazing.

A holidy rally will start soon and extend to Jan, when our omnipotent president elect obm takes office and fix everything.

obm bless america. 祝你好运
xqh05 at 11/20/2008 20:54 快速引用
确实有点儿 surprise。

这个 6 是从哪里得到的消息?

同伙膨胀是一定的了。不过美国有宪法,obm 不能像国民党一样随便膨胀,还有个过程。

其他国家更差。欧洲好多银行的 leverage ratio 比美国的还高。


想不明白,索性不想了。

WoJian :
xiaoqiang :
Amazing.

A holidy rally will start soon and extend to Jan, when our omnipotent president elect obm takes office and fix everything.

obm bless america. 祝你好运


没出乎我的意料吧。 Laughing

credit紧缩,不仅影响了个人消费,也影响了企业消费。企业都在那里攒现金。美元的流通倍数,已经从9降到6。印钱的时候到了。

麻烦的是,以后美元流通倍数从6升回9的时候,那些多印的货币如何回笼,拿什么实物去回笼。回笼不了,就是大幅通货膨胀。
xiaoqiang at 11/20/2008 23:17 快速引用
I don't know.

If I bet with my money, I will say there is no bottom in sight yet. This is a dangeour casino.

xqh05 :
该见底了吗?

xiaoqiang :
Amazing.

A holidy rally will start soon and extend to Jan, when our omnipotent president elect obm takes office and fix everything.

obm bless america. 祝你好运
xiaoqiang at 11/20/2008 23:18 快速引用
通货膨胀?看看物价指数吧。
rogerlee at 11/20/2008 23:21 快速引用
物价指数 does not include housing price.

rogerlee :
通货膨胀?看看物价指数吧。
xiaoqiang at 11/20/2008 23:23 快速引用
house price上涨了?我晕

xiaoqiang :
物价指数 does not include housing price.

rogerlee :
通货膨胀?看看物价指数吧。
rogerlee at 11/20/2008 23:25 快速引用
是到了把 house 加进指数的时候了。

rogerlee :
house price上涨了?我晕

xiaoqiang :
物价指数 does not include housing price.

rogerlee :
通货膨胀?看看物价指数吧。
xiaoqiang at 11/20/2008 23:33 快速引用
由于人为的通货膨胀,房价表面上从50万跌到40万,但是实际上是已经跌到30万了,如果用黄金结算的话。结果是大家一起替有房的人买单,是这个意思吗?

rogerlee :
house price上涨了?我晕

xiaoqiang :
物价指数 does not include housing price.

rogerlee :
通货膨胀?看看物价指数吧。
peachleaf at 11/20/2008 23:34 快速引用
太复杂了,看得 我晕 ,而且不是因为感冒的缘故。

现在的问题不是通货膨胀或紧缩,而是通货变化的太快,一定程度上已经失去了作为通货的作用。大概像个白雪病人,一堆变态的白细胞数量越来越多。




peachleaf :
由于人为的通货膨胀,房价表面上从50万跌到40万,但是实际上是已经跌到30万了,如果用黄金结算的话。结果是大家一起替有房的人买单,是这个意思吗?

rogerlee :
house price上涨了?我晕

xiaoqiang :
物价指数 does not include housing price.

rogerlee :
通货膨胀?看看物价指数吧。
xiaoqiang at 11/20/2008 23:44 快速引用
不懂你说的。通货膨胀是钱不值原来的钱了,就是以前50万就买到房子,现在要60万。这叫通货膨胀。现在什么物价都在下降,哪里有通货膨胀?

peachleaf :
由于人为的通货膨胀,房价表面上从50万跌到40万,但是实际上是已经跌到30万了,如果用黄金结算的话。结果是大家一起替有房的人买单,是这个意思吗?

rogerlee :
house price上涨了?我晕

xiaoqiang :
物价指数 does not include housing price.

rogerlee :
通货膨胀?看看物价指数吧。
rogerlee at 11/20/2008 23:53 快速引用
只能说明你还没有好 Laughing
主席呢 confused

我的意思是说,由于通货膨胀,房价跌不到它应该跌到的价位 frustrated

xiaoqiang :
太复杂了,看得 我晕 ,而且不是因为感冒的缘故。

现在的问题不是通货膨胀或紧缩,而是通货变化的太快,一定程度上已经失去了作为通货的作用。大概像个白雪病人,一堆变态的白细胞数量越来越多。




peachleaf :
由于人为的通货膨胀,房价表面上从50万跌到40万,但是实际上是已经跌到30万了,如果用黄金结算的话。结果是大家一起替有房的人买单,是这个意思吗?

rogerlee :
house price上涨了?我晕

xiaoqiang :
物价指数 does not include housing price.

rogerlee :
通货膨胀?看看物价指数吧。
peachleaf at 11/20/2008 23:57 快速引用
同意

peachleaf :

我的意思是说,由于通货膨胀,房价跌不到它应该跌到的价位 frustrated

xiaoqiang at 11/20/2008 23:58 快速引用
好了你已经全愈了, happy
我发现,在米国没房子就是受歧视阿 Sad
没房子还上税又不在花儿街骗人的人就更倒霉了 Mad

xiaoqiang :
同意

peachleaf :

我的意思是说,由于通货膨胀,房价跌不到它应该跌到的价位 frustrated

peachleaf at 11/21/2008 00:02 快速引用
rogerlee :
不懂你说的。通货膨胀是钱不值原来的钱了,就是以前50万就买到房子,现在要60万。这叫通货膨胀。现在什么物价都在下降,哪里有通货膨胀?


我晕 我晕 超市里的东西都涨了不止10%了,我打算按照这个标准再加点要求明年涨工资。。。
开会 at 11/21/2008 07:54 快速引用
在哪里看到的,不记得是什么地方了。

计算本来也不应该很复杂的吧,就是比较一下M3与M0的比例,就知道金钱兜了几个圈了。

银行本身,一般是不leverage的,是消费者把钱从银行里转过来转过去,借过来借过去,造成了基础货币的流通量放大。如果从银行reserve的角度来看,借出去的钱,象是leverage了,但那些都是储户的钱,银行拿去帮着投资的。

美国的reserve ratio是10%,中国还利用提高这个比例的要求,来控制货币供应量,控制通货膨胀的呢。

xiaoqiang :
确实有点儿 surprise。

这个 6 是从哪里得到的消息?

同伙膨胀是一定的了。不过美国有宪法,obm 不能像国民党一样随便膨胀,还有个过程。

其他国家更差。欧洲好多银行的 leverage ratio 比美国的还高。


想不明白,索性不想了。

WoJian :
xiaoqiang :
Amazing.

A holidy rally will start soon and extend to Jan, when our omnipotent president elect obm takes office and fix everything.

obm bless america. 祝你好运


没出乎我的意料吧。 Laughing

credit紧缩,不仅影响了个人消费,也影响了企业消费。企业都在那里攒现金。美元的流通倍数,已经从9降到6。印钱的时候到了。

麻烦的是,以后美元流通倍数从6升回9的时候,那些多印的货币如何回笼,拿什么实物去回笼。回笼不了,就是大幅通货膨胀。
WoJian at 11/21/2008 09:12 快速引用
举个例子来说明货币的放大。

银行A拿了储户100元,按照reserve ratio,它可以借出90元。

有个人借了银行A90元,拿出去用了,收钱的那家,把钱放进了银行B(银行B可以等于A,也可以不等于A)。

银行B拿到储户90元,可以借出81元。

有人借了银行B81元,拿出去用了,收钱的那家,把钱放进了银行C。

。。。。。。

然后还有银行D,E,F。。。

。。。。。。

一直循环,是个等比数列,等比数列的极限总和等于1000。也就是说理想最大放大倍数是10,是reserve ratio的倒数。


WoJian :
在哪里看到的,不记得是什么地方了。

计算本来也不应该很复杂的吧,就是比较一下M3与M0的比例,就知道金钱兜了几个圈了。

银行本身,一般是不leverage的,是消费者把钱从银行里转过来转过去,借过来借过去,造成了基础货币的流通量放大。如果从银行reserve的角度来看,借出去的钱,象是leverage了,但那些都是储户的钱,银行拿去帮着投资的。

美国的reserve ratio是10%,中国还利用提高这个比例的要求,来控制货币供应量,控制通货膨胀的呢。

xiaoqiang :
确实有点儿 surprise。

这个 6 是从哪里得到的消息?

同伙膨胀是一定的了。不过美国有宪法,obm 不能像国民党一样随便膨胀,还有个过程。

其他国家更差。欧洲好多银行的 leverage ratio 比美国的还高。


想不明白,索性不想了。

WoJian :
xiaoqiang :
Amazing.

A holidy rally will start soon and extend to Jan, when our omnipotent president elect obm takes office and fix everything.

obm bless america. 祝你好运


没出乎我的意料吧。 Laughing

credit紧缩,不仅影响了个人消费,也影响了企业消费。企业都在那里攒现金。美元的流通倍数,已经从9降到6。印钱的时候到了。

麻烦的是,以后美元流通倍数从6升回9的时候,那些多印的货币如何回笼,拿什么实物去回笼。回笼不了,就是大幅通货膨胀。
WoJian at 11/21/2008 09:25 快速引用
出去玩儿了几天,没上网,怎么又成这个样子了?

怎么办呢?

据说,跌到7000就会到6000,到了6000就会一路到0, 天啊

要不要认输,把剩下的钱保住啊?太可怕了!
wildcrane at 11/21/2008 12:12 快速引用
开会 :
rogerlee :
不懂你说的。通货膨胀是钱不值原来的钱了,就是以前50万就买到房子,现在要60万。这叫通货膨胀。现在什么物价都在下降,哪里有通货膨胀?


我晕 我晕 超市里的东西都涨了不止10%了,我打算按照这个标准再加点要求明年涨工资。。。


是你的统计结果?
rogerlee at 11/21/2008 13:10 快速引用
rogerlee :
开会 :
rogerlee :
不懂你说的。通货膨胀是钱不值原来的钱了,就是以前50万就买到房子,现在要60万。这叫通货膨胀。现在什么物价都在下降,哪里有通货膨胀?


我晕 我晕 超市里的东西都涨了不止10%了,我打算按照这个标准再加点要求明年涨工资。。。


是你的统计结果?


主席侬是不是不食人间烟火啊~~~小龙女啊~~~ 狂笑 狂笑
开会 at 11/21/2008 13:14 快速引用
通货膨胀会造成房价上升,不会造成房价跌。
现在的房价跌是其它原因,主要是供应开始大于需求了。


peachleaf :
只能说明你还没有好 Laughing
主席呢 confused

我的意思是说,由于通货膨胀,房价跌不到它应该跌到的价位 frustrated

xiaoqiang :
太复杂了,看得 我晕 ,而且不是因为感冒的缘故。

现在的问题不是通货膨胀或紧缩,而是通货变化的太快,一定程度上已经失去了作为通货的作用。大概像个白雪病人,一堆变态的白细胞数量越来越多。




peachleaf :
由于人为的通货膨胀,房价表面上从50万跌到40万,但是实际上是已经跌到30万了,如果用黄金结算的话。结果是大家一起替有房的人买单,是这个意思吗?

rogerlee :
house price上涨了?我晕

xiaoqiang :
物价指数 does not include housing price.

rogerlee :
通货膨胀?看看物价指数吧。
rogerlee at 11/21/2008 13:23 快速引用
胡说八道。

rogerlee :
通货膨胀会造成房价上升,不会造成房价跌。
现在的房价跌是其它原因,主要是供应开始大于需求了。


peachleaf :
只能说明你还没有好 Laughing
主席呢 confused

我的意思是说,由于通货膨胀,房价跌不到它应该跌到的价位 frustrated

xiaoqiang :
太复杂了,看得 我晕 ,而且不是因为感冒的缘故。

现在的问题不是通货膨胀或紧缩,而是通货变化的太快,一定程度上已经失去了作为通货的作用。大概像个白雪病人,一堆变态的白细胞数量越来越多。




peachleaf :
由于人为的通货膨胀,房价表面上从50万跌到40万,但是实际上是已经跌到30万了,如果用黄金结算的话。结果是大家一起替有房的人买单,是这个意思吗?

rogerlee :
house price上涨了?我晕

xiaoqiang :
物价指数 does not include housing price.

rogerlee :
通货膨胀?看看物价指数吧。
xiaoqiang at 11/21/2008 13:30 快速引用
怎么大家都没丢钱的样子?

好多好多钱已经没了。
wildcrane at 11/21/2008 13:39 快速引用
wildcrane :
怎么大家都没丢钱的样子?

好多好多钱已经没了。


丢的反正回不来了
还是乐观一点向前看比较有利健康
开会 at 11/21/2008 13:42 快速引用
wildcrane :
怎么大家都没丢钱的样子?

好多好多钱已经没了。


你投了很多在股市?
rogerlee at 11/21/2008 13:53 快速引用
给你机会说正的啊。wink

xiaoqiang :
胡说八道。

rogerlee :
通货膨胀会造成房价上升,不会造成房价跌。
现在的房价跌是其它原因,主要是供应开始大于需求了。


peachleaf :
只能说明你还没有好 Laughing
主席呢 confused

我的意思是说,由于通货膨胀,房价跌不到它应该跌到的价位 frustrated

xiaoqiang :
太复杂了,看得 我晕 ,而且不是因为感冒的缘故。

现在的问题不是通货膨胀或紧缩,而是通货变化的太快,一定程度上已经失去了作为通货的作用。大概像个白雪病人,一堆变态的白细胞数量越来越多。




peachleaf :
由于人为的通货膨胀,房价表面上从50万跌到40万,但是实际上是已经跌到30万了,如果用黄金结算的话。结果是大家一起替有房的人买单,是这个意思吗?

rogerlee :
house price上涨了?我晕

xiaoqiang :
物价指数 does not include housing price.

rogerlee :
通货膨胀?看看物价指数吧。
rogerlee at 11/21/2008 13:57 快速引用
Your investment strategy needs to be consistent.

"Bulls make money, Bears make money, Pig and Chicken got slaughtered."

- A proverb of Wall Street

wildcrane :
出去玩儿了几天,没上网,怎么又成这个样子了?

怎么办呢?

据说,跌到7000就会到6000,到了6000就会一路到0, 天啊

要不要认输,把剩下的钱保住啊?太可怕了!
xiaoqiang at 11/21/2008 14:02 快速引用
罗斯福在大萧条之后派政府官员接管了很多银行,还透明与信心于民众。

可惜 obm 不是罗斯福。This is the biggest risk right now. The market can deal with bulls or bears, and it cannot adjust to the whims of manipulative politicians.
xiaoqiang at 11/21/2008 14:07 快速引用
别忘了Obama要到明年二月才是总统。

xiaoqiang :
罗斯福在大萧条之后派政府官员接管了很多银行,还透明与信心于民众。

可惜 obm 不是罗斯福。This is the biggest risk right now. The market can deal with bulls or bears, and it cannot adjust to the whims of manipulative politicians.
rogerlee at 11/21/2008 14:10 快速引用
The market is forward looking, usually 6-9 months ahead of the curve.

rogerlee :
别忘了Obama要到明年二月才是总统。

xiaoqiang :
罗斯福在大萧条之后派政府官员接管了很多银行,还透明与信心于民众。

可惜 obm 不是罗斯福。This is the biggest risk right now. The market can deal with bulls or bears, and it cannot adjust to the whims of manipulative politicians.
xiaoqiang at 11/21/2008 14:11 快速引用
ahead of what curve?

xiaoqiang :
The market is forward looking, usually 6-9 months ahead of the curve.

rogerlee :
别忘了Obama要到明年二月才是总统。

xiaoqiang :
罗斯福在大萧条之后派政府官员接管了很多银行,还透明与信心于民众。

可惜 obm 不是罗斯福。This is the biggest risk right now. The market can deal with bulls or bears, and it cannot adjust to the whims of manipulative politicians.
rogerlee at 11/21/2008 14:14 快速引用
Ahead of the current reality.

If the market believes the economy will recover second half next year, the current stock price will rise instead of falling.

rogerlee :
ahead of what curve?

xiaoqiang :
The market is forward looking, usually 6-9 months ahead of the curve.

rogerlee :
别忘了Obama要到明年二月才是总统。

xiaoqiang :
罗斯福在大萧条之后派政府官员接管了很多银行,还透明与信心于民众。

可惜 obm 不是罗斯福。This is the biggest risk right now. The market can deal with bulls or bears, and it cannot adjust to the whims of manipulative politicians.
xiaoqiang at 11/21/2008 14:18 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
罗斯福在大萧条之后派政府官员接管了很多银行,还透明与信心于民众。

可惜 obm 不是罗斯福。This is the biggest risk right now. The market can deal with bulls or bears, and it cannot adjust to the whims of manipulative politicians.


I think it will help if you put aside your grudges.

he hasn't been in office yet, and you seem to think he has been already responsible for what we are facing at this day - too childish like me.
wildcrane at 11/21/2008 15:03 快速引用
Not exactly.
照这么说,现在的情况岂不六个月前就知道了?市场会反映未来的“预期”,但预期不是完全决定性的。最近的下跌应该是失业率上升和公司的盈利下跌相关。如果年底节日销售不好,可能还会跌。


xiaoqiang :
Ahead of the current reality.

If the market believes the economy will recover second half next year, the current stock price will rise instead of falling.

rogerlee :
ahead of what curve?

xiaoqiang :
The market is forward looking, usually 6-9 months ahead of the curve.

rogerlee :
别忘了Obama要到明年二月才是总统。

xiaoqiang :
罗斯福在大萧条之后派政府官员接管了很多银行,还透明与信心于民众。

可惜 obm 不是罗斯福。This is the biggest risk right now. The market can deal with bulls or bears, and it cannot adjust to the whims of manipulative politicians.
rogerlee at 11/21/2008 15:13 快速引用
I would suggest people, if have not already done so, get out the market in the week that obm takes office.

A lot of childish people think obm will fix the economy, therefore their euphoria will drive up the market, until the obm reality sets in.

wildcrane :
xiaoqiang :
罗斯福在大萧条之后派政府官员接管了很多银行,还透明与信心于民众。

可惜 obm 不是罗斯福。This is the biggest risk right now. The market can deal with bulls or bears, and it cannot adjust to the whims of manipulative politicians.


I think it will help if you put aside your grudges.

he hasn't been in office yet, and you seem to think he has been already responsible for what we are facing at this day - too childish like me.
xiaoqiang at 11/21/2008 15:27 快速引用
明年的失业率将达9%, 这是一个恐怖的数字(比石油危机的70年代还差), 房价股票还有可能继续跌, 自求多福吧....
kurtyang at 11/21/2008 15:33 快速引用
If my memory serves me correctly, American people are more resilient mentally than most pseudo economists predict. My boss, who lost more than 40% of his 401k during the last several months, behaves normally as far as I can tell.

The Christmas shopping season may not be as good as last year's, but people will continue to celebrate. As a result, the market will beat "experts" depressing forcasting numbers and will go up instead of going down in the next month. The obm euphoria factor will also drive up the market.

Next year will be very difficult. The best thing that obm can do is probably to do nothing. If he trusts his "vision and wisdom and deep spiritual journey" and his advisors' "expertise" to pick winners and losers, it will be a real disaster.

rogerlee :
如果年底节日销售不好,可能还会跌。


xiaoqiang :
Ahead of the current reality.

If the market believes the economy will recover second half next year, the current stock price will rise instead of falling.

rogerlee :
ahead of what curve?

xiaoqiang :
The market is forward looking, usually 6-9 months ahead of the curve.

rogerlee :
别忘了Obama要到明年二月才是总统。

xiaoqiang :
罗斯福在大萧条之后派政府官员接管了很多银行,还透明与信心于民众。

可惜 obm 不是罗斯福。This is the biggest risk right now. The market can deal with bulls or bears, and it cannot adjust to the whims of manipulative politicians.
xiaoqiang at 11/21/2008 15:37 快速引用
The US economy is fundamentally strong, and I am not just trying to give an upbeat tone.

The money that evaporated this year are mostly speculative fake trash, not real money that has been invested and utilized in the real part of the economy. That's why the balance sheet of a lot of non-flower-street companies remains solid, and that's why the lives of lots of responsible people who did not live above their means remain ok.

Most of the jobs that are lost this year are in the fake-money-making sectors and they should not exist in the first place. This is very different from the 70's.


kurtyang :
明年的失业率将达9%, 这是一个恐怖的数字(比石油危机的70年代还差), 房价股票还有可能继续跌, 自求多福吧....
xiaoqiang at 11/21/2008 15:45 快速引用
i neither think he can save the mess nor can he mess up the mess more than what the mess already is.

xiaoqiang :
I would suggest people, if have not already done so, get out the market in the week that obm takes office.

A lot of childish people think obm will fix the economy, therefore their euphoria will drive up the market, until the obm reality sets in.

wildcrane :
xiaoqiang :
罗斯福在大萧条之后派政府官员接管了很多银行,还透明与信心于民众。

可惜 obm 不是罗斯福。This is the biggest risk right now. The market can deal with bulls or bears, and it cannot adjust to the whims of manipulative politicians.


I think it will help if you put aside your grudges.

he hasn't been in office yet, and you seem to think he has been already responsible for what we are facing at this day - too childish like me.
wildcrane at 11/21/2008 15:47 快速引用
That's the result under optimal condition. Let's hope he can achieve that.

wildcrane :
i neither think he can save the mess nor can he mess up the mess more than what the mess already is.

xiaoqiang :
I would suggest people, if have not already done so, get out the market in the week that obm takes office.

A lot of childish people think obm will fix the economy, therefore their euphoria will drive up the market, until the obm reality sets in.

wildcrane :
xiaoqiang :
罗斯福在大萧条之后派政府官员接管了很多银行,还透明与信心于民众。

可惜 obm 不是罗斯福。This is the biggest risk right now. The market can deal with bulls or bears, and it cannot adjust to the whims of manipulative politicians.


I think it will help if you put aside your grudges.

he hasn't been in office yet, and you seem to think he has been already responsible for what we are facing at this day - too childish like me.
xiaoqiang at 11/21/2008 15:50 快速引用
however, because of panic and fear, it still could be out of control.

xiaoqiang :
The US economy is fundamentally strong, and I am not just trying to give an upbeat tone.

The money that evaporated this year are mostly speculative fake trash, not real money that has been invested and utilized in the real part of the economy. That's why the balance sheet of a lot of non-flower-street companies remains solid, and that's why the lives of lots of responsible people who did not live above their means remain ok.

Most of the jobs that are lost this year are in the fake-money-making sectors and they should not exist in the first place. This is very different from the 70's.


kurtyang :
明年的失业率将达9%, 这是一个恐怖的数字(比石油危机的70年代还差), 房价股票还有可能继续跌, 自求多福吧....
wildcrane at 11/21/2008 16:29 快速引用
I think the crisis although is bad, it also offered him a good opportunity to reform - although some of them are not on your wish list such as health care. wink

xiaoqiang :
That's the result under optimal condition. Let's hope he can achieve that.

wildcrane :
i neither think he can save the mess nor can he mess up the mess more than what the mess already is.

xiaoqiang :
I would suggest people, if have not already done so, get out the market in the week that obm takes office.

A lot of childish people think obm will fix the economy, therefore their euphoria will drive up the market, until the obm reality sets in.

wildcrane :
xiaoqiang :
罗斯福在大萧条之后派政府官员接管了很多银行,还透明与信心于民众。

可惜 obm 不是罗斯福。This is the biggest risk right now. The market can deal with bulls or bears, and it cannot adjust to the whims of manipulative politicians.


I think it will help if you put aside your grudges.

he hasn't been in office yet, and you seem to think he has been already responsible for what we are facing at this day - too childish like me.
wildcrane at 11/21/2008 16:30 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
The US economy is fundamentally strong, and I am not just trying to give an upbeat tone.

The money that evaporated this year are mostly speculative fake trash, not real money that has been invested and utilized in the real part of the economy. That's why the balance sheet of a lot of non-flower-street companies remains solid, and that's why the lives of lots of responsible people who did not live above their means remain ok.

Most of the jobs that are lost this year are in the fake-money-making sectors and they should not exist in the first place. This is very different from the 70's.

kurtyang :
明年的失业率将达9%, 这是一个恐怖的数字(比石油危机的70年代还差), 房价股票还有可能继续跌, 自求多福吧....


还是有两个问题的,一个是就业率问题。公司比平常要更多地拽着现金,削减掉的职位,至少要这样保持一段时间。另一个是产品销售预期,估计会降低不少,所以总产量会减少。

如果美国人都知道勒紧腰带过日子,勤奋工作,美国当然是能恢复的,还能恢复得很好。
WoJian at 11/21/2008 17:09 快速引用
A lot of companies remove job opennings that has not been filled. That counts as job reduction as well and will have much material impact on the company.

The crystal ball 产品销售预期 has already been done by the married-but-availables who still manage to hang on to their slots in the company. And as any other forcastes that are not based on facts or logic, their downward forcasts are over-done.


So overrall the upside potential is still very big.

WoJian :

还是有两个问题的,一个是就业率问题。公司比平常要更多地拽着现金,削减掉的职位,至少要这样保持一段时间。另一个是产品销售预期,估计会降低不少,所以总产量会减少。

如果美国人都知道勒紧腰带过日子,勤奋工作,美国当然是能恢复的,还能恢复得很好。
xiaoqiang at 11/21/2008 17:36 快速引用
He has chosen the NY Fed Chair as the new treasure secratry, which means he will continue the current financial policy at least for the first half of his presidency. The street of flower apparently likes his choice.

support


I support any real reform of health-care.


wildcrane :
I think the crisis although is bad, it also offered him a good opportunity to reform - although some of them are not on your wish list such as health care. wink

xiaoqiang at 11/21/2008 17:40 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
A lot of companies remove job opennings that has not been filled. That counts as job reduction as well and will have much material impact on the company.

The crystal ball 产品销售预期 has already been done by the married-but-availables who still manage to hang on to their slots in the company. And as any other forcastes that are not based on facts or logic, their downward forcasts are over-done.

So overrall the upside potential is still very big.

WoJian :

还是有两个问题的,一个是就业率问题。公司比平常要更多地拽着现金,削减掉的职位,至少要这样保持一段时间。另一个是产品销售预期,估计会降低不少,所以总产量会减少。

如果美国人都知道勒紧腰带过日子,勤奋工作,美国当然是能恢复的,还能恢复得很好。


昨天看到一个新闻,最近有三十多匹马被捐出了,因为承受不起抚养负担。

也许你是对的,虚钱的幻灭可能已经被算进去了。不过,这还要看倒退算回什么时候才算是实地。你说的花儿街一看就喜欢obm选的财长,就不象是个好的迹象和苗头。
WoJian at 11/22/2008 11:43 快速引用
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