zt 深度分析美国经济和美元前景的提纲 2009-09-20 02:23:42 1/11/2010 03:54
Outline of Remarks on Dollar Perspective

By F. William Engdahl 2 August 2009

I would like to address the future prospect for the US Dollar as the world key or reserve currency. The answer requires a brief look at what determinesthe relative value of the dollar today. Since President Nixon freed the dollar from gold exchange in August 1971 the dollar has been a floating currency whose value, high or low, has often been determined by political considerations as well as financial market perceptions for the future. 我在这里要对美元作为世界主要货币或者储备货币的前景的做一个判断。首先需要简略地讨论一下,今天的美元价值是如何确定的?自从尼克松总统1971年8月宣布放弃金本位以来,美元一直是一个浮动的货币,美元的价值高低往往是由政治上的考虑和金融市场前景预期决定的。The relative value of the dollar since 1971 has been a very political value.That is my point. 自从1971年以来,美元的相对价值始终是一个由政治决定的价值。这是我的主要判断。

In the context of the global financial crisis which first erupted in summer 2007 around the US sub-prime real estate problems, the dollar has defied many economists by remaining surprisingly strong despite the fact that the US financial system is in its worst crisis in all its 220 year history and its economy is sinking into what is already the worst recession since the 1930’s Great Depression. To say what the future of the dollar might be it is necessary to examine why the dollar remains relatively stable since 2007. 从2007年夏天以来、由次贷开始的全球金融危机,美元出乎意料的强势打破了许多经济学家的预计,尽管美国的金融系统是处于220年历史上最糟糕的状态中,美国经济也陷入了1930年大萧条以来最严重的衰退。为了讨论美元的前途,我们必须查看一下,美元为何能从2007年以来,在危机中还保持了相对稳定。 Net capital flows into dollar: 净资本输入美元体系

If the US economy goes into severe recession/depression as it has since 2007, then the relative value of the dollar against major trading currencies especially Japan Yen and Euro or Canadian dollar should also fall. 如果美国经济确实从2007年就进入了衰退或者萧条,那么美元相对于主要贸易伙伴的货币价值就应该下降,例如日元,欧亚和加拿大元等。

What has the dollar done against the Euro, its major trading currency? The course has been extremely volatile since 2007, up and down. In January 2007 before the first signs of crisis in the US Mortgage-Backed Securities market, the dollar-euro stood at 1.30 and remained in a trading range to 1.36 until July 2007. By November 2007, as the crisis became evident across the banking system the dollar fell to 1.48 to the euro.那么美元相对于欧元这个主要的贸易货币采取了何种行动?自从2007年以来的过程是非常动荡的,大起大伏。在美国抵押贷款证券市场危机的迹象出现之前,2007年1月美元和欧亚的兑换率是1.30,交易中的汇率幅度可达1.36,这个汇率一直维持到2007年7月。到当年的11月,当危机在整个银行体系中迹象很明显的时候,美元――欧元 兑换率变成了1.48。

In 2008 dollar-euro was wildly volatile as bank failures in USA and UK spread and by April 2008 dollar fell to 1.60 to euro. Central banks around the world coordinated action after the September 15 decision by the US Government to let Lehman Bros. fail, because a systemic crisis developed globally as risk became incalculable. No one knew anymore which US banks were “too big to fail.” 2008年全年,美元-欧元的关系大幅度变动,美英银行失败,到四月美元下降到1.60美元兑换一欧元。全球的央行在9月15日雷曼兄弟公司破产后采取了联合行动,因为风险变得无法预计,整个世界的金融体系陷入了危机。谁也不知道还有哪一个美国的银行是因为“太大”而不能倒闭的。

Yes, the dollar recovered to 1.28 by October 2008. The reason was simple. Central banks had moved to contain the dollar crisis that time and then private capital flows rushed back into the dollar. Why? Because US mutual funds, US banks, US corporations all were forced to repatriate their foreignprofits to cover losses in the US. As well, European corporations that had borrowed in dollars were forced to find dollars at any price, as loans came due. All those flows drive the dollar artificially high then despite the severe crisis. 毫无疑问,在2008年的8月,美元汇率恢复到1.28。原因很简单。各国央行采取了遏制危机的行动,私人的资本回流到美元体系中。为什么会这样?因为美国的对冲基金、美国的银行、美国的公司都被迫把利润调回来填补在美国发生的亏损。同样,欧洲的公司必须不惜代价找到美元,归还到期的美国贷款。所有这些货币流动,在严重的危机中推高了美元的价值。

What about the most recent dollar stability? Here we see the effect of the propaganda campaign of Wall Street banks and Washington since March 9, to drive a “suckers’rally” in the S&P 500 stocks and to speak of seeing “green shoots” of recovery. The Obama Administration under direction of Economic Czar Larry Summers, has already manipulated US economic data for GDP and other data more than any president in history to date, to help fuel the myth of recovery. The latest US GDP data announced July 31 contained thelargest revision to GDP statistics in history, whose effect is to make the GDP decline look like recession is ending. The “recession” is not ending. It is just beginning. The worst is yet to come.那么最近美元的稳定又该如何解释?我们在这里看到华尔街银行和华盛顿3月9日以来宣传战的成功,它们开动了一场“标准/普尔500股票 ”吸血鬼狂欢,还说什么看见了复苏的“绿意”。奥巴马政府在经济沙皇莱尔.萨莫斯的领导下修改了美国GDP等数据,做得比任何往届政府都更恶劣,用这个办法来制造复苏的神话。7月31日公布的最近的美国GDP数字被修正得好像“衰退”已经触底。其实衰退还刚刚开始,最糟糕的事情还没有发生。

The US economic reality: 美国经济现实

The reality of the US economy is opposite the propaganda of Wall Street.美国经济的现实和华尔街的宣传正相反。In real economic terms, the US Economy is already in a Depression. The GrandBenchmark Revision of the National Income Accounts on July 31, 2009 confirmed that the US economy is in its worst economic contraction since thefirst down wave of the Great Depression in the early 1930s. 从真正的经济意义上讲,美国的经济已经陷入萧条。2009年7月31日的经过基准数字修订的国民收入,可以确认美国经济已经出现了大萧条以来最严重的紧缩。

As one former Reagan Treasury official recently stated, “There is no economy left to recover. The US manufacturing economy was lost to off-shoring and free trade ideology. It was replaced by a mythical ‘New Economy’ based on services. It was fed by the Federal Reserve's artificially low interest rates, which produced a real estate bubble, and by "free market" financial deregulation, which unleashed financial gangsters to new heights of debt leverage and fraudulent financial products.”里根的一位前财政部官员最近这样说过,“我们已经没有什么可以恢复的经济了。美国的制造业经济已经输给了‘外包’和自由贸易的意识形态,被一个建筑在服务业基础上的奇妙的‘新经济’取代了。这个新经济被美联储人为压低的利率支撑起来,被房地产泡沫、被‘自由的市场’金融‘去监管化’释放出来的犯罪团伙、被更高的债务杠杆和带有欺诈内容的金融产品滋养出来了。

”When that make-believe economy collapsed, Americans' wealth in their real estate, pensions, and savings collapsed dramatically while their jobs disappeared. The debt economy caused Americans to leverage their assets. They refinanced their homes and spent the equity. They spent their limit on numerous credit cards. They worked as many jobs as they could find. Debt expansion and multiple family incomes kept the US economy going over the past two decades.当这个自欺欺人的经济垮下去的时候,当美国人工作岗位消失的时候,他们在房地产、养老基金和储蓄中的财产也大规模地垮掉了。这个债务经济迫使美国人把自己的财产当作杠杆来使用:他们为自己的住宅再融资,把自己的资产押进去。他们把无数信用卡上的信贷额度用完了。他们尽量多兼职工作。是债务的扩张和每个家庭都尽量多地兼职,才把美国经济又支撑了20年。

Now suddenly Americans can't borrow in order to spend. They are over their heads in debt. Jobs are disappearing. America's consumer economy, approximately 70% of GDP, is dead. Those Americans who still have jobs are saving against the prospect of job loss. Millions are homeless. Some have moved in with family and friends; others are living in tent cities.然后突然之间美国人不能借债消费了。他们背负的债务已经淹没了他们自己。工作岗位不断消失。这个要消费国民生产总值70%以上的美国的消费经济已经死亡。还在就业的美国人也在为了将来可能失业而储蓄了。成百万的人又变得无家可归。有一些和亲朋好友挤住,另外的搬进了帐篷“市区”。

The current economic downturn increasingly will be referred to as a depression. It is far from over. This downturn will continue to deteriorate,be extremely protracted, extremely deep and not responsive to traditional economic stimulus. July 2009 marked the 19th month of US economic contraction, the longest downturn since the early 1930s first down wave of the Great Depression. The most recent quarterly GDP contractions, as well asannual declines of 3.3% and 3.9%, respectively, in first- and second-quarters 2009, are the worst in the history of the quarterly GDP series thatgoes back to 1947.越来越多的人会把目前发生的经济下滑称为衰退。“见底”还远得很。这个下降趋势会恶化和持续非常长久的时间,会衰退得非常深,而且无力回应通常的经济刺激手段。2009年的7月是美国经济收缩的第19个月,已经是大萧条以来最长久的收缩。在2009年第一季度和第二季度发生的经济收缩的规模 (3.3% ),年度经济收缩的规模(3.9%,),已经是1947年以来最糟糕的情境了。

The US economy suffers from severe underlying structural problems tied to consumer debt relative to income. Households cannot keep up with inflation and no longer can rely on excessive debt expansion for meeting short-falls in maintaining living standards. The structural issues are not being addressed meaningfully by the Obama stimulus programs. They cannot be addressed without a significant fundamental change in government economic and trade policies, which under the best of circumstances still would drag out economic depression for many years to come. In short, since 2007 US consumers have been saving to pay down their huge credit card, auto and homedebts. They are not and will not consume for a long time. In the past 12 months they have reduced debt by a staggering $2 trillion. That has reduced the economic growth seriously and is the driver of the depression. There is no choice. 美国经济正在面临的是的深刻的结构问题,它是消费者过度负债和收入之间的长期关系的后果。居民家庭的收入无法跟上通涨的速度,同时又不能再依靠过度借贷维持短期的生活水平不要下降。奥巴马政府的刺激计划根本没有触及这个结构性问题。如果不彻底改变政府的经济政策、政治政策和贸易政策,这个问题也是无法触及的,既使是在最好的情境下,这个结构性问题也会在将来很多年月里导致经济的衰退。概括地说,2007年以来美国消费者已经在储蓄,为了支付信用卡消费、为购买汽车和住房而储蓄。他们在很长的时间里不能再“消费”。仅仅在过去的12个月里,他们就消减了2万亿美元的债务,这个行动同时也压低了经济发展的速度,是使经济发生萧条的“发动机”。但是他们已经没有别的选择了。

If we calculate data in absence of the official manipulation or “cooking the books”, the real estimate of unemployment is above 20% today, not the official 9.5%. The GDP is declining at the most severe rate since the SecondWorld War and rapidly nearing levels of the Great Depression. 如果我们不受政府的影响来分析数据,不“玩弄统计”数字,那么今天美国的失业率已经达到20%,不是官方宣布的9.5%。GDP下降的速度也是二战以来最快的,迅速逼近了大萧条的水平。

US manufacturing output is collapsing. Household debt levels are at the highest in US history over 300% of disposable income. Corporate debt is equally high. Government debt is at a record and soon to reach 100% of GDP. The United States economy is caught in a debt trap of its own making.美国制造业产出正在垮下来。家庭负债的水平是美国历史上最高的――达到可支配收入的300%。公司负债的水平也达到这个水平。政府债务水平也创了纪录,不久将同GDP相等。美国经济已经落入了它自己制造出来的债务陷阱。

Prospects for the dollar:美元的前途

China is today in the new position of being the world’s largest creditor. Suddenly leading G7 officials and prominent people like former IMF head Candessus say “We should invite China to a seat at the Big Table” Why? They forget today that “Table” is “Made in China” US is world’s largestnet debtor. They hope China will use its wealth to bailout the dollar system that is collapsing. I assume Chinese policymakers are more intelligent than they do and that they will continue to look to securing national economic security in this crisis. It will be complicated but not impossible.今天的中国坐上了世界最大债主的第一把交椅。突然之间,G7的官员和国际大腕们,例如前IMF的总裁坎迪萨斯(Candessus)说,“我们应当邀请中国坐到‘大桌’前边来。”为什么要他们邀请中国?他们是否忘记了“大桌子”是“中国制造”?美国才是世界上最大的负债者。他们想让中国用自己的财富把崩溃中美国体系拯救出来。我假定,中国的决策者其实思考的比行动更深,他们将继续努力在这场危机中保卫国民经济的安全。解决问题很复杂,但决不是不可能。

Since 1985 when the United States became a net debtor country for the first time since the First World War, the United States has become the world’s largest net debtor country. As of January 2009, America's net international investment position was a negative $3.47 trillion, the Commerce Department reported. That represents the difference between the value of U.S. assets owned by foreigners ($23.36 trillion) and the value of foreign assets owned by Americans ($19.89 trillion). The USA as a single entity, public and private owes the world $3.47 trillion. Much of that is to China, ironically.The USA is a military superpower today but an economic dwarf.美国自从1985年以来一直是一个净负债的国家,这是从一战以来首次出现的情境。现在美国已经是世界上最大的负债国。2009年1月,美国商务部报告美国的净国际投资是负的3.47万亿美元。这是这个数字是外国人拥有的美国资产(23.36万亿美元)和美国人拥有的外国资产(19.98万亿美元)之差。作为一个整体的美国,公私两方共欠全世界3.47万亿美元。其中很大一部分是欠中国的。今天的美国是军事上的巨人,在经济上已经成了侏儒。

During 2008 alone the USA net debt grew by $1.33 trillion, or 62 percent. The tendency is not getting better as bank bailout and other economic coats soar. 仅仅在2008年一年中,美国的净债务就增加了1.33万亿美元,增幅是62%。迄今这个趋势没有发生任何改变,因为要救市,还有其他的经济成本都在飞升。

Foreigners now hold nearly 50 percent of the federal government's publicly held debt. If foreign investors significantly reduce their purchase of future US Treasury debt securities, without even dumping their current holdings, US interest rates could soar and the dollar could collapse. America's net debtor status with foreigners is at the highest level in US history.外国人现在事实上持有联邦政府差不多50%的公共债务。如果外国投资人真的开始减少购买今后的美国财政部的债券,甚至不用减持已购买的债务,美元利率就会飞升,美元就会大跌。美国欠外国人的债务的规模达到美国历史上前所未有的水平。

That did not matter as long as the dollar remained world reserve currency and as long as foreign investors financed that debt with buying US Government bonds and other assets, good or bad. 当美元还是世界储备货币的时候,欠债是不成问题的,只要外国投资人还来购买美国政府债券和其他资产,不论好坏,欠债都不成为问题。

In recent years two major sources of dollar buying have supported the US dollar. One has been the rising dollar price of world oil. That lasted through approximately August 2008 when oil began to fall dramatically from its all-time high of $147 a barrel to levels around $40 by January 2009. Lower oil price means lower demand for trade dollars.最近几年里,有两种因素支持了美国的美元。第一是石油价格高涨。2008年8月前后涨到最高点147美元一桶,随后大跌至2009年1月的40美元左右。低落的石油价格意味着对美元的需求疲软。

The other major source of dollar support has come from trade surplus countries with the USA whose central banks have little place to invest thosedollars as safe as in US Government debt. The largest dollar debt buyers inthe recent past for different reasons have been the central banks of Russia, Japan and, far ahead of all others—The Peoples Bank of China. 支持美元价值的第二个因素是世界各国对美国的贸易顺差,那些国家的央行没有什么别的地方去投资,把美国政府债务当成了安全避风港。最近出于不同的理由,购买美元债务最大的买主中有俄国、日本等国家;而远远超了过所有的买主,中国的人民银行是最大的买家。

The United States economic model of the past thirty years of ongoing trade and current account deficits is nearing the end of sustainability, as financial markets and foreign governments begin to worry it is not sustainable any longer. No one can say when the dollar will react, but that it must fall in the months ahead is clear. Only a dramatic and unexpected war might conceivably buy a little more time for the dollar. Even that is not certain so great are the deficits.以往30年的美国的对外贸易和经常账户赤字经济模型是不可持续的,现在已经走到了头,因为金融市场和外国的政府开始担忧,这个模式再也不能维持了。无人能够准确地说出美元何时会出“变数”,但是在今后不久美元将要贬值是确定无疑的。只有戏剧性变化或者出乎意料的战争,也许才能为美元再赢得一点生存的时间,而且由于这样做所要付的代价,做了是否就有用也是很难说的。

The United States today is caught in a deadly debt trap much as Argentina orother Third World countries were during the 1980’s. But that is not all. The prospects for Federal US Government deficits going forward are extremelynegative as well: 美国今天实际上已经陷入了和阿根廷以及第三世界在1980年一样的债务陷阱。这还没有完,美国联邦政府对付赤字的前景同样是极端的阴暗。

Conclusion结语

The US government's budget deficit has jumped from $455 billion in 2008 to $2,000 billion this year, with another $2,000 billion on the books for 2010. And President Obama has intensified America's expensive war in Afghanistan and initiated a new war in Pakistan.美国政府的预算赤字:2008年4550亿美元,将在今年底飙升到2万亿美元。奥巴马总统已经在阿富汗扩大了战事,又在巴基斯坦开打新的战争。美国没有别的办法为战争融资,除了印刷更多的钞票,或者压低股市,那样做将会把人们引向放弃财产转持债券。

There is no way for these deficits to be financed except by printing money or by further collapse in stock markets that would drive people out of equity into bonds.The US government's budget is 50% in deficit. That means half of every dollar the federal government spends must be borrowed or printed. Because ofthe worldwide debacle caused by Wall Street's financial greed, the world needs its own money and is growing unwilling to lend $2 trillion annually to lend to Washington. And the US Budget deficit will remain at least $1 trillion or more for the next ten years or more.美国政府的预算赤字达到50%。这意味着美国政府每一美元的支出中,有一半必须靠借债或者靠印钞票。由于全世界都被华尔街的贪婪击中,这个世界现在需要自己的货币,越来越不情愿每年拿出2万亿美元的钱借给华盛顿用。美国的预算赤字在今后的10年或者更长的时期中,至少会保持在1万亿美元或者更高的水平上。

As dollars are printed, the growing supply adds to the pressure on the dollar's role as reserve currency. Already America's largest creditor, China, is warning Washington to protect China's investment in US debt and discussing a new reserve currency to replace the dollar before it collapses.According to various reports, China is spending down its holdings of US dollars by acquiring gold and stocks of raw materials and energy. That makesmuch sense.美元钞票印得越多,对它作为储备货币功能的压力就越大。作为美国最大的债权国,中国已经警告过华盛顿,必须保护中国投资的安全,并且提出了在美元体系崩溃之前,创造替代美元的新的储备货币这个问题。从多种渠道传来的信息表明,中国正在用美元购买黄金和资源/能源的股票。这才是更清醒的做法。

The price of one ounce gold coins is $1,000 despite efforts of the US government to hold down the gold price. How high will this price jump when the rest of the world decides that the bankruptcy of "the world's only superpower" is here?尽管美国政府想压低黄金价格,每盎司黄金仍然出于1000美元的水平。我们不知道,当全世界都认为“唯一超级大国”崩溃近在眼前的时候,黄金的价格会跳上什么台阶?

Nothing in Obama's economic policy is directed at saving the US dollar as reserve currency or the livelihoods of the American people. Obama's policy, like Bush's before him, is keyed to the enrichment of Goldman Sachs and the armament industries.奥巴马政府的经济政策中根本没有拯救美元储备货币地位、拯救美国人民生活水平的内容。奥巴马的政策,和他之前的布什政府的政策一样,都是为高盛和军事工业巨头的财富服务的。

Look at the Goldman Sachs representatives in the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations. This Wall Street firm controls the economic policy of the United States. Little wonder that Goldman Sachs has record earnings. But theUS economy is going into severe depression and the dollar with it.看看高盛派到克林顿政府、布什和奥巴马政府中的代表,我们就可以看得很清楚,这家华尔街企业控制了美国的经济政策。高盛盈利赚大钱是没有什么稀奇的事情。可是美国的经济将要陷入严重的衰退,和经济衰退走在一起的,将是美元的衰落。
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