也从中国的GDP想一想 8/18/2010 11:23
参数太多了,GDP,inflation rate, unemployment rate, mortgage rate, consumer confidence index, oil price, retail sails number, manufacture index, service sector index, home price index, home starts, productivity, interest rate, yield curve, Fedex shipping number, etc. etc.

还有通过这些参数推导出来的参数,各种 forecast。用以进行推导的 model 也是千奇百怪。使用 data over-fitting这个工具,一个人可以随意的以任何精度 mix and match 数据和 model。这些 model 又能被扩展为 theory,就是所谓的种种“必然规律”。

搀和进来的还有先知 Buffet, Almighty O,Big Ben 这样的人物,以夜观星象为又依据,发布各种 oracle,take 各种 random but high impact action。Is the mood of O more import than China's GDP?

如果中国可以统计所有县长以上官员每天的卡路里摄入量,那么制造一个 model 来用这些 number predict 上海股市的走向并不是一件难事。Does this model, or these numbers, really help people to unearth the real mechanism (or is there one?) behind the daily operation of a society?

All these 宏观 BS got to end somewhere. The question is: where?
小强对经济学感兴趣啦? Laughing
rogerlee at 8/18/2010 11:37 快速引用
Not at all.

A normal person cannot make decisions based on economic theories. Wojian's gambling heuristic, your rule of thumb, wildcrane's instinct, to name a few, are several magnitudes better than the "economic" study.

rogerlee :
小强对经济学感兴趣啦? Laughing
xiaoqiang at 8/18/2010 11:57 快速引用
I don't know where is wojian's and wildcrane's(I guess wildcrane should have training on Economics. wojian's gambling is generally based on Math). I think most of my "rule of thumb" is from Economics, or based on the Economic principles. The exception is when those principles are not followed.


xiaoqiang :
Not at all.

A normal person cannot make decisions based on economic theories. Wojian's gambling heuristic, your rule of thumb, wildcrane's instinct, to name a few, are several magnitudes better than the "economic" study.

rogerlee :
小强对经济学感兴趣啦? Laughing
rogerlee at 8/18/2010 12:22 快速引用
我感觉GDP的实在意义其实是由两部分组成的。一部分是实在的实业生产能力(包括虚业从国外收刮来的钱财,但不能包括在国内相互之间的收刮)。另一部分是政府可以用来作为依据而收的税的那个部分(这个部分可以包括国内的虚业)。这样,第一部分确实代表了民富。第二部分代表了国强(因为拿那税钱的60%去耀武扬威去了)。
WoJian at 8/18/2010 16:55 快速引用
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