Fed bank stress test result 3/13/2012 16:52
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/bcreg/bcreg20120313a1.pdf


Added to my Fed comedy central reading collection.
太长了。小强给总结一下要点和暴笑点吧。
了因 at 3/14/2012 10:06 快速引用
One example is on page 9, GDP projection.

了因 :
太长了。小强给总结一下要点和暴笑点吧。
xiaoqiang at 3/14/2012 12:19 快速引用
What's wrong?

xiaoqiang :
One example is on page 9, GDP projection.

了因 :
太长了。小强给总结一下要点和暴笑点吧。
rogerlee at 3/14/2012 12:55 快速引用
Nothing.

rogerlee :
What's wrong?

xiaoqiang :
One example is on page 9, GDP projection.

了因 :
太长了。小强给总结一下要点和暴笑点吧。
xiaoqiang at 3/14/2012 13:33 快速引用
co-ask
了因 :
太长了。小强给总结一下要点和暴笑点吧。
xqh05 at 3/15/2012 13:28 快速引用


xqh05 :
co-ask
了因 :
太长了。小强给总结一下要点和暴笑点吧。
xiaoqiang at 3/15/2012 17:11 快速引用
xiaoqiang :


xqh05 :
co-ask
了因 :
太长了。小强给总结一下要点和暴笑点吧。


Laughing Laughing

我看了第9页。那种stress看上去属于短期的一种压榨,然后主要表现的是后期的恢复。

可是美国碰到的问题,并不是短期的压榨呀?所谓的短期压榨,是指中国俄国在美国困难的情况下再捣捣乱吗?这点对美国来说,倒是确实要心惊胆战的,因为当初它就是这么对付苏联的,

其实我看美国彻底抛弃金融,大家都有钱才花的话,日子也不至于过不了了。
了因 at 3/16/2012 10:31 快速引用
Big Ben must've conducted a lot of other academic frauds before becoming the Fed Chairman. The best thing about economists is that their BS cannot be proved wrong in definitive manner.

了因 :
xiaoqiang :


xqh05 :
co-ask
了因 :
太长了。小强给总结一下要点和暴笑点吧。


Laughing Laughing

我看了第9页。那种stress看上去属于短期的一种压榨,然后主要表现的是后期的恢复。

可是美国碰到的问题,并不是短期的压榨呀?所谓的短期压榨,是指中国俄国在美国困难的情况下再捣捣乱吗?这点对美国来说,倒是确实要心惊胆战的,因为当初它就是这么对付苏联的,

其实我看美国彻底抛弃金融,大家都有钱才花的话,日子也不至于过不了了。
xiaoqiang at 3/16/2012 12:44 快速引用
了因 :
xiaoqiang :


xqh05 :
co-ask
了因 :
太长了。小强给总结一下要点和暴笑点吧。


Laughing Laughing

我看了第9页。那种stress看上去属于短期的一种压榨,然后主要表现的是后期的恢复。

可是美国碰到的问题,并不是短期的压榨呀?所谓的短期压榨,是指中国俄国在美国困难的情况下再捣捣乱吗?这点对美国来说,倒是确实要心惊胆战的,因为当初它就是这么对付苏联的,

其实我看美国彻底抛弃金融,大家都有钱才花的话,日子也不至于过不了了。


你如果了解什么是敏感性分析,就不会这么说了。
rogerlee at 3/16/2012 13:00 快速引用
rogerlee :
了因 :
xiaoqiang :


xqh05 :
co-ask
了因 :
太长了。小强给总结一下要点和暴笑点吧。


Laughing Laughing

我看了第9页。那种stress看上去属于短期的一种压榨,然后主要表现的是后期的恢复。

可是美国碰到的问题,并不是短期的压榨呀?所谓的短期压榨,是指中国俄国在美国困难的情况下再捣捣乱吗?这点对美国来说,倒是确实要心惊胆战的,因为当初它就是这么对付苏联的,

其实我看美国彻底抛弃金融,大家都有钱才花的话,日子也不至于过不了了。


你如果了解什么是敏感性分析,就不会这么说了。


你是说政府的“打补丁”才能吧?! Laughing Laughing
了因 at 3/16/2012 14:02 快速引用
最近的 market 开始有意思起来,与年初的 monotonous 的 Big Ben 一手操纵的情况大有不同。

对市场有兴趣的同学们是怎么看的呢?这初闹剧到底还能持续多久?
xiaoqiang at 3/19/2012 12:00 快速引用
My sense is that the Fed will have to do QE3 - QE21 to support the US junk bond market (or simply put, to cover the interest payment of US Treasury). The real interest rate will rise sharply at some point this year when people realize hyper inflation is coming and Big Ben loses control. Meanwhile the stock market flies to much higher level.

A competing scenario is that EU goes bust again with PIIGS re-emerge from their "recovery" and ask for more bailout. USD strengthens and deflation spiral sets in. That will lead Big Ben to implement QE3 - QE21 as well, and the market stays at its current level.

So it seems Ben has no exit from the mess it created. It has to push along, until it all stops.


So what would be the sign that he is stopped? A highly likely event might be another scandal involving big investment firms or the Fed officials. A less likely even is that Rep wins Nov election.

So until then, put money under the mattress and don't touch this market, because you really don't know when the music will stop. It might be tomorrow.

xiaoqiang :
最近的 market 开始有意思起来,与年初的 monotonous 的 Big Ben 一手操纵的情况大有不同。

对市场有兴趣的同学们是怎么看的呢?这初闹剧到底还能持续多久?
xiaoqiang at 3/19/2012 12:46 快速引用
The Fed is very stressful at this point.

If interest rate goes up, Big Ben and O are game over.
xiaoqiang at 3/19/2012 15:07 快速引用
你也真敢说啊。

xiaoqiang :
My sense is that the Fed will have to do QE3 - QE21 to support the US junk bond market (or simply put, to cover the interest payment of US Treasury). The real interest rate will rise sharply at some point this year when people realize hyper inflation is coming and Big Ben loses control. Meanwhile the stock market flies to much higher level.

A competing scenario is that EU goes bust again with PIIGS re-emerge from their "recovery" and ask for more bailout. USD strengthens and deflation spiral sets in. That will lead Big Ben to implement QE3 - QE21 as well, and the market stays at its current level.

So it seems Ben has no exit from the mess it created. It has to push along, until it all stops.


So what would be the sign that he is stopped? A highly likely event might be another scandal involving big investment firms or the Fed officials. A less likely even is that Rep wins Nov election.

So until then, put money under the mattress and don't touch this market, because you really don't know when the music will stop. It might be tomorrow.

xiaoqiang :
最近的 market 开始有意思起来,与年初的 monotonous 的 Big Ben 一手操纵的情况大有不同。

对市场有兴趣的同学们是怎么看的呢?这初闹剧到底还能持续多久?
rogerlee at 3/19/2012 15:54 快速引用
Yelp. 狂笑

Cannot wait to see Ben got arrested.

rogerlee :
你也真敢说啊。

xiaoqiang :
My sense is that the Fed will have to do QE3 - QE21 to support the US junk bond market (or simply put, to cover the interest payment of US Treasury). The real interest rate will rise sharply at some point this year when people realize hyper inflation is coming and Big Ben loses control. Meanwhile the stock market flies to much higher level.

A competing scenario is that EU goes bust again with PIIGS re-emerge from their "recovery" and ask for more bailout. USD strengthens and deflation spiral sets in. That will lead Big Ben to implement QE3 - QE21 as well, and the market stays at its current level.

So it seems Ben has no exit from the mess it created. It has to push along, until it all stops.


So what would be the sign that he is stopped? A highly likely event might be another scandal involving big investment firms or the Fed officials. A less likely even is that Rep wins Nov election.

So until then, put money under the mattress and don't touch this market, because you really don't know when the music will stop. It might be tomorrow.

xiaoqiang :
最近的 market 开始有意思起来,与年初的 monotonous 的 Big Ben 一手操纵的情况大有不同。

对市场有兴趣的同学们是怎么看的呢?这初闹剧到底还能持续多久?
xiaoqiang at 3/19/2012 17:02 快速引用
Ok, 主席 is good.

real interest rate + inflation rate = nominal interest rate. How can real interest rate becomes much higher when Big Ben says nominal interest rate remains at 0 till late 2014?


The paper might help to solve this conundrum: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2010/1001/ifdp1001.pdf


If you don't want to read the paper. A over-simplified version is like this: Big Ben loses its control on interest rate if he loses its credibility.
xiaoqiang at 3/19/2012 17:13 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
Ok, 主席 is good.

real interest rate + inflation rate = nominal interest rate. How can real interest rate becomes much higher when Big Ben says nominal interest rate remains at 0 till late 2014?


The paper might help to solve this conundrum: http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/2010/1001/ifdp1001.pdf


If you don't want to read the paper. A over-simplified version is like this: Big Ben loses its control on interest rate if he loses its credibility.


不过美国政府信用的美妙之处在于:世界形势好的时候美国基本在信用很好的范围,世界形势不好的时候,美国一定能把别人都弄得比美国更糟糕,结果美国还是相对最好。 Laughing Laughing

大家都相信这点,所以大家还都相信美元,因为也没有什么别的可选项呀。 wink wink
了因 at 3/20/2012 10:22 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
My sense is that the Fed will have to do QE3 - QE21 to support the US junk bond market (or simply put, to cover the interest payment of US Treasury). The real interest rate will rise sharply at some point this year when people realize hyper inflation is coming and Big Ben loses control. Meanwhile the stock market flies to much higher level.

A competing scenario is that EU goes bust again with PIIGS re-emerge from their "recovery" and ask for more bailout. USD strengthens and deflation spiral sets in. That will lead Big Ben to implement QE3 - QE21 as well, and the market stays at its current level.

So it seems Ben has no exit from the mess it created. It has to push along, until it all stops.


So what would be the sign that he is stopped? A highly likely event might be another scandal involving big investment firms or the Fed officials. A less likely even is that Rep wins Nov election.

So until then, put money under the mattress and don't touch this market, because you really don't know when the music will stop. It might be tomorrow.

xiaoqiang :
最近的 market 开始有意思起来,与年初的 monotonous 的 Big Ben 一手操纵的情况大有不同。

对市场有兴趣的同学们是怎么看的呢?这初闹剧到底还能持续多久?


通涨压力真起来的时候,需要依赖于美国公司与个人对经济的信心起来了,金融周转恢复到最大的9倍的基础货币放大率。大笨依赖的就是这件事情不会发生,美国经济并不能真的恢复。他手里有着真正的货币贬值资料,他心里很明白美国人不仅就业率降低了,而且实际平均收入也事实上降低了,所以总体实际消费者可支配货币总量已经降低了好几年了,不会一下子就恢复的。

如果真恢复,他有没有回笼货币的手段呢?这就是最大的疑点。估计他心里有一个计划的,但是他不拿出来给我们看看,我们就无法判断他是否考虑周到了,是否是属于书生气的计划。
了因 at 3/20/2012 10:31 快速引用
Today Big Ben says he is watching interest rate rising in the recent weekly "very closely".

Big Ben is the worst kind of lair. He believes his own lies. His "plan" is no different from China's plan in 50's. Basically he will order the banks to "voluntarily" remove liquidity from the market, and he is confident that the banks will obey.

When his bluff is called, the economy will fall with him.


了因 :
xiaoqiang :
My sense is that the Fed will have to do QE3 - QE21 to support the US junk bond market (or simply put, to cover the interest payment of US Treasury). The real interest rate will rise sharply at some point this year when people realize hyper inflation is coming and Big Ben loses control. Meanwhile the stock market flies to much higher level.

A competing scenario is that EU goes bust again with PIIGS re-emerge from their "recovery" and ask for more bailout. USD strengthens and deflation spiral sets in. That will lead Big Ben to implement QE3 - QE21 as well, and the market stays at its current level.

So it seems Ben has no exit from the mess it created. It has to push along, until it all stops.


So what would be the sign that he is stopped? A highly likely event might be another scandal involving big investment firms or the Fed officials. A less likely even is that Rep wins Nov election.

So until then, put money under the mattress and don't touch this market, because you really don't know when the music will stop. It might be tomorrow.

xiaoqiang :
最近的 market 开始有意思起来,与年初的 monotonous 的 Big Ben 一手操纵的情况大有不同。

对市场有兴趣的同学们是怎么看的呢?这初闹剧到底还能持续多久?


通涨压力真起来的时候,需要依赖于美国公司与个人对经济的信心起来了,金融周转恢复到最大的9倍的基础货币放大率。大笨依赖的就是这件事情不会发生,美国经济并不能真的恢复。他手里有着真正的货币贬值资料,他心里很明白美国人不仅就业率降低了,而且实际平均收入也事实上降低了,所以总体实际消费者可支配货币总量已经降低了好几年了,不会一下子就恢复的。

如果真恢复,他有没有回笼货币的手段呢?这就是最大的疑点。估计他心里有一个计划的,但是他不拿出来给我们看看,我们就无法判断他是否考虑周到了,是否是属于书生气的计划。
xiaoqiang at 3/20/2012 12:51 快速引用
xiaoqiang :
Today Big Ben says he is watching interest rate rising in the recent weekly "very closely".

Big Ben is the worst kind of lair. He believes his own lies. His "plan" is no different from China's plan in 50's. Basically he will order the banks to "voluntarily" remove liquidity from the market, and he is confident that the banks will obey.

When his bluff is called, the economy will fall with him.


对啊,说是前几天利息窜了一下,这是什么原因呀?是俄国和中国发动利息攻势了吗? Laughing Laughing

美国确实依赖于外国买国债来降低利息的,那样事实国债利息会低于零,光用印钞票给利息就可以了,还有得赚。
了因 at 3/21/2012 11:25 快速引用
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